Case Update, August 22, 2023; New Variant EG.5

All Articles, Case Update, Omicron

I have a case update, and also some news about a new variant, EG.5.

There has been a significant uptick in new cases in the US, California, and San Diego County in recent weeks. However, since cases have recently been very low, the uptick in cases still results in very few cases by pandemic standards, as many as we had in Spring of 2021 before Delta came around. Arguably, these new cases are already starting to subside.

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it. Data since March 10, 2023 is from Worldometer.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it. Data since March 10, 2023 is from Worldometer.
Hospitalizations, from the CDC website.
The current EG.5 wave barely registers on the far right of this linear graph. Daily US New Cases, Worldometer/coronavirus/us.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it. Data since March 10, 2023 is from Worldometer.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it. Data since March 10, 2023 is from Worldometer.
Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. San Diego County now only releases information on Thursday each week. Data points shown are extrapolated using this information.
Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. San Diego County now only releases information on Thursday each week. Data points shown are extrapolated using this information. Apparent spike in deaths in July 2023 likely represents a glut of cases reported all at once.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it. Data since March 10, 2023 is from Worldometer.
World Wide Daily COVID Deaths, Worldometer/coronavirus.

Variant EG.5 Why is this news? Rumors are circulating that this represents a dangerous new wave of COVID cases. Indeed, a new variant is currently spreading that many do not seem to have immunity to. Variant EG.5 has been spreading since May and now represents a majority of new cases. In fact several universities including Rutgers and Brown are bringing back COVID mandates, as well as some Hollywood studios.

From the CDC page on Variant Proportions for the United States. Updated for August
22th, 2023. EG.5 currently represents 20.6% of new cases.

Should you be concerned? There is not yet any evidence that EG.5 is any deadlier than other mild Omicron strains. If you’ve already had COVID, you needn’t be concerned. EG.5 may simply represent a free booster for you.

If you haven’t had COVID yet, I can no longer recommend a vaccine or booster for anyone, even those of you at high risk. If you’re concerned about getting COVID, I suggest wearing an N95 style mask while indoors in public. The mask must fit snugly, and must filter air coming into your nose and mouth. Do not wear a blue surgical mask. Blue surgical masks are not useful for preventing Omicron infection.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

_______________________________________________
Update: September 1st, 2023

BA.2.86, Pirola: Just a few days after the US media began to announce potential new lockdowns due to the EG.5 variant, now called “Eris”, the British government announced concern over a variant called BA.2.86, called “Pirola”. This new variant has 36 mutations in the Spike protein as compared to the currently circulating XBB variants. According to Dr. John Campbell, the UK government is even announcing that their new version of the COVID vaccine will be released early.

Is Pirola a concern? No, not really. While the new variant may evade the immune symptoms of many, infection appears to cause the same mild symptoms as a common cold, just like other recent Omicron variants. As for EG.5, those with natural immunity need not be concerned. As with EG.5, if you’re concerned about getting BA.2.86, I suggest wearing an N95 style mask while indoors in public. The mask must fit snugly, and must filter air coming into your nose and mouth. Do not wear a blue surgical mask. Blue surgical masks are not useful for preventing Omicron infection.

Leave a comment