This is a COVID case update. New confirmed case numbers continue to decrease, although slowly. The endcoronavirus county level trend map shows a few small outbreaks in Michigan, but improvement everywhere else.
I’m going to get into the statistical weeds a little bit right now. Read on if you’re interested in that. I often post a graph of new cases along with active cases for California and San Diego County. San Diego actually publishes numbers of recovered patients, but California does not. My estimates for California have been based on the San Diego recovered numbers. San Diego’s recovered numbers have generally matched the new case numbers for 17 days previous, so I’ve been doing the same for California. Now, for whatever reason, San Diego’s recovered numbers have been matching new numbers for 22 days previous, which makes a big difference in “Active Confirmed Cases”. So now I’ve been making a bunch of modifications to my estimates for California numbers, and I’m not sure I feel comfortable showing you such adjusted numbers. So if you have an opinion, let me know in the comments if you want to continue seeing “Active Cases” for California, despite all the guesswork.