This is a case update. I’ll also discuss vaccination in San Diego County and herd immunity in general.

New cases may have plateaued in the US, but new outbreaks are apparent in some states. Michigan was the standout state for new cases, but endcoronavirus now suggests outbreaks across the Rust Belt, Northeast, Northwest, Colorado, and Florida. In most counties, actual numbers are small, but are obviously much larger in urban areas. If we are in a 4th wave, it appears to be much smaller than Wave 3, probably impacted by increased vaccination.

New case loads remain low in California and San Diego, likely at least partially because cases were so high during Wave 3 in the Fall and Winter.

Internationally, new cases are very high worldwide. The new high cases numbers are likely impacted by the new variants such as B.1.1.7 (the UK variant) which is more infectious than the original Wuhan strain, and now dominates in many countries. Brazil and India are particularly hard hit. Canada’s current wave is as high as their Winter wave, but the numbers there are in general much lower than for the US.

Vaccination in San Diego County: According to the County, about 37% of County residents are now fully vaccinated, with 60% having had at least 1 dose. Vaccination is now available to anyone 16 and up who wants to be vaccinated. If you want to be vaccinated, you can find a location on their website.

Herd Immunity: First, just a reminder that I am not an epidemiologist. Early in the pandemic, many recommended herd immunity as a way out of the pandemic. At the time, I argued that exposing a lot of people to a disease to protect people from a disease was counter productive. Now that we have a vaccine, herd immunity is a viable option for moving forward. For a population, herd immunity can be effective, although the percentage of people who need to have immunity to reach this is dependent on the disease and usually surprisingly high. On an individual basis, if you’re concerned about catching the virus, it’s far better to just get vaccinated at this point than to worry about if we’ve reached herd immunity.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik