This is a case update. We continue to see cases going up significantly in the US, California, and San Diego County. Frankly at this point, cases are going up further than I expected, although they still are not as high as our most recent small peak in April. These new cases are likely due to the more infectious Delta Variant. According to endcoronavirus, new cases are concentrated in the West, Midwest and South of the US.
In the past I’ve seen that Sunday numbers are most consistent week to week and usually are an indicator of what we will see in the following week. This past Sunday, case numbers were significantly higher in the US than the previous week, although I might be optimistic and say that we may already reached the new peak in California. San Diego did not report Sunday numbers last week, so I can’t say what the current trend is for San Diego.
Happily, we have not seen a corresponding increase in deaths. A slow yet consistent downward trend in deaths in the US has apparently not been effected at all by the Delta Variant, but did rise a little in California.
A new study preprint by Bernal et al suggests that the Pfizer vaccine is 88% effective against the Delta Variant as opposed to 93% for the Alpha/UK Variant. The vaccines provide good protection when compared to others, but are not completely protective.