Case Update, July 26th, 2021

This is a COVID case update. There were large increases in confirmed cases in the US, California, and San Diego County last week. Wave 5, the Delta Variant wave, can no longer be considered a blip to be sure. In all three regions, case numbers are significant, even matching last Summer’s wave. Most new cases are concentrated in the Great Lakes States, the South, and the West.

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a linear format.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Endcoronavirus County Level Map, July 24th, 2021
Endcoronavirus County Level Map, July 24th, 2021
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. See also regularly updated slides from SD County. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. See also regularly updated slides from SD County.

For the US, I’ve noticed that the Friday numbers are always particularly high these days. This may be because labs are trying to report out all their cases before the weekend. Sunday continues to be the low reporting day. Last Friday’s number was very high for the US, 177k new cases. So we had a big upward trend for the week. However, Sunday’s number was about the same as last week.

I’m going make a very tentative point now that may very well be wrong. Since yesterday’s number was basically the same as last weeks, this MAY be an indicator that we’ve hit a peak for Wave 5. This next week will show if that’s true. In many nations, the Delta variant has created a sharp peak, with numbers quickly rising before the peak, and quickly falling after.

California’s numbers are very high was well, and San Diego County is the 9th highest county in the nation for new cases.

There is some good news. At least in the US and San Diego County, new deaths have not gone up with the number of new cases. In fact, in San Diego County at the time of this writing, new deaths are lower than they have ever been during the pandemic, with just 24 in June, and just 18 so far in July. California is experiencing a slight uptick in new deaths. This pattern appears to be true for many first world countries, including those in Western Europe, and Eastern Asia like Japan and South Korea.

World wide, cases continue to climb. In many countries including Indonesia, Russia, and India, new Delta Variant cases did result in a large number of new deaths. This suggests that vaccination in a country has resulted in better outcomes for infected people in that country.

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site.
New daily confirmed cases and new deaths for Indonesia, Johns Hopkins University COVID site.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

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