Case Update, September 29th, 2021

This is a brief COVID case update. The number of cases in the US is definitely going down right now. In California and San Diego County, there was an uptick in cases last week for some reason, at least using date from the Johns Hopkins site. This is not seen on the endcoronavirus site. Discrepancies in reporting may explain this difference.

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a linear format.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a linear format.
Endcoronavirus County Level Map, September 27th, 2021
Endcoronavirus State Level Map, September 29th, 2021
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. See also regularly updated slides from SD County. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. See also regularly updated slides from SD County. Graph is presented in a linear format.

As I’ve said before, we may still see cases rise in the US now that we’re entering the Fall months. Look for cases to rise in the Northern states first. Whether this happens depends on how many people in the North are immunized, and how well immunization works against Delta.

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a linear format.

World wide, the Delta peak is definitely losing steam. For most countries the Delta peak is over or is ending, but some are still struggling. Some countries who have done well early on, still struggled with Delta, like South Korea and Japan.

I have to admit, I predicted that the US would not see many deaths from the Delta peak. While the death rate during our Delta peak has been lower than for previous peaks, it has certainly been higher than I thought. Just wanted to point that out for full disclosure.

In most countries with large vaccination programs, the death rate has been lower during the Delta peak. But this has not always been true. Israel has a very high vaccination rate, as does the UK, but they have both seen higher death rates than the Netherlands during COVID, so the issue is more complex than just the vaccination rate. It will take some time to understand these relationships.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

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