Case Update, February 14, 2022; Variant BA.2, Dr. Fauci Announces the End of the Pandemic.

This week I’ll have a case update, then discuss variant BA.2, and Dr. Fauci’s announcement about the end of the Pandemic.

Cases in the US, California, and San Diego County are all still going down sharply. Cases are now at the same level as in mid-December. According to Endcoronavirus, most states have decreasing cases.

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a linear format.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a linear format.
Endcoronavirus County Level Map, February 14th, 2022
Endcoronavirus State Level Map, February 14th, 2022
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a linear format.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a linear format.
Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. See also regularly updated slides from SD County. Graph is presented in a linear format.
Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. See also regularly updated slides from SD County. Graph is presented in a linear format.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a linear format.
Hospitalizations, from the CDC website.

Variant BA.2: This new variant is now increasing slightly over the original Omicron. This is no reason to be concerned, however, since BA.2 is just a slightly more infectious version of Omicron. Antibodies against Omicron are expected to be effective against BA.2, so this does not represent a new variant that will cause case numbers to rise.

From the CDC page on Variant Proportions. Accessed February 5th, 2022.

Dr. Fauci announces the end of the Pandemic: In an article in Financial Times, Dr. Fauci stated that he expects that the pandemic phase of COVID will be over in the next few months. I agree, with the exception that I think a reasonable time frame is more like weeks than months.

He also stated that he thinks boosters will continue to be necessary to keep the virus at bay. On this I have to disagree. The vaccines had a minimal impact on new infections due to Omicron, although they probably had a positive impact on disease severity. Given that the new cases are now very low, and the unknown but real danger from adverse reactions, I think there is now almost no reason to get a vaccine booster. For vaccines to continue to be useful, we need a more current version, against something like Delta or Omicron. I don’t expect we’ll be getting that.

Many scientists, including those I respect, think the virus will become endemic, meaning it will continue to circulate at a low level in different forms basically forever. With some trepidation and perhaps over-optimism, I think Omicron will eventually peter out and SARS-2 will be over. We’ll see if that happens.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

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