Case Update, August 12, 2022, Monkeypox Update.

This is a case update. I’ll also have an update on the Monkeypox epidemic.

Not much has changed in the last 2 and a half weeks. Cases are still at a moderate level, at least according to official case numbers in the US, California and San Diego County. However, deaths in all 3 regions are still relatively low. This situation has persisted since early May. Even the more dangerous BA.5 has not really produced a large increase in official cases.

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a linear format.
Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. San Diego County now only releases information Monday and Thursday each week. Data points shown are extrapolated using this information.
Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. Graph is presented in a linear format. San Diego County now only releases information Monday and Thursday each week. Data points shown are extrapolated using this information.

Most people are not getting tested in a medical setting right now, preferring to test themselves with over the counter antigen tests. As I posted a few weeks ago, these tests are producing a lot of false negatives right now, so many with COVID think they just have a cold. I believe I had COVID in mid July, but I tested negative twice, and never tested positive.

A better measure of case load is hospitalizations. In the US, hospitalizations likely peaked just a few weeks ago, and are now headed down. In San Diego County, hospitalizations likely peaked on around July 10th.

Hospitalizations, from the CDC website.
Hospitalizations in SD County, May 1st to July 30th, 2022. Gray area represents time-frame in which data is still being collected.

Right now, 89% if the COVID in the US is of the BA.5 variant. This variant is theoretically more dangerous than previous Omicron variants, but has not had a large impact, likely because of a lot of immunity in the population, either vaccine or naturally acquired. As for me, my case in January was much more severe than my case in July, despite my case in July being a more “dangerous” variant.

From the CDC page on Variant Proportions. Updated on August 13rd.

Most in the public are acting as if the pandemic is basically over. For the vast majority, there is really no longer a danger of severe disease or death. If you have not yet had COVID, you may still want to take precautions to prevent infection. Wear a medical respirator (N95, KN95, or KF94) when indoors in public.

Monkeypox Update: Despite being only moderately infectious, Monkeypox has continued to spread in many countries. There are now 11,000 confirmed cases in the US. The disease is similar to Smallpox, but is much less severe. It is spread primarily by skin to skin contact. With medical attention, Monkeypox is very rarely fatal, with currently only 3 fatalities in Europe. Monkeypox is endemic in central Africa, and occasionally produces outbreaks.

From the CDC website on Monkeypox cases, accessed August 12th, 2022.
From a UK government website on Monkeypox accessed August 12, 2022.

Monkeypox virus has been found on surfaces and in airborne droplets, so it is theoretically possible to contract it via these routes. However, there have been no confirmed cases of airborne transmission in the UK, according to a UK government document.

Some people living with infected persons have also contracted Monkeypox, so it appears that prolonged indirect contact can also spread this disease.

At the moment, 95.3% of cases in the UK are in a category called “men who have sex with men” (MSM), and this rate is likely similar in the US, but if cases continue to go up in the US, we will likely see more cases in the broader community. The good news is, new daily cases in the UK peaked in early July and are coming down now, so the US will likely start seeing a reduction in cases soon. Hopefully, the Monkeypox epidemic will be short lived.

A note on symptoms. Most of the public and even physicians assume that Monkeypox produces boils similar to smallpox or chickenpox. While it often does, it commonly seems to produce small rashes instead, leading to misdiagnosis. So if you or someone you know has small rashes, they should assume Monkeypox, isolate themselves, and seek medical attention. Smallpox vaccine appears to be effective against Monkeypox, so a vaccine is already available, but it is in short supply right now.

Monkeypox rashes, from Wall Street Journal video, Why Monkeypox is a Global Health Threat.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

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