Case Update, September 8th, 2022; Variant BA.4.6, Hurricane Kay will pass near San Diego

This is a COVID case update. I’ll also have a brief warning about Hurricane Kay, which I’ve heard very little about in the news.

Confirmed cases continue to decrease in the US, California, and San Diego County. Hospitalizations are down too, especially in San Diego County.

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Hospitalizations, from the CDC website.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a linear format.
Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. San Diego County now only releases information Monday and Thursday each week. Data points shown are extrapolated using this information.
Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. Graph is presented in a linear format. San Diego County now only releases information Monday and Thursday each week. Data points shown are extrapolated using this information.
Hospitalizations in SD County, May 29th to August 21st, 2022. Gray area represents time-frame in which data is still being collected. Note that a significant number of hospitalizations are among the vaccinated.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a linear format.

A newly recognized variant, BA.4.6 is growing relative to BA.5, so is likely more infectious. I haven’t been able to determine from news stories if it is more or less pathogenic (disease causing) than BA.5. BA.5 never caused an increase in deaths, despite it being more dangerous than previous Omicron strains.

From the CDC page on Variant Proportions. Updated on September 3rd.
From the CDC page on Variant Proportions. Updated on September 3rd. Most BA.4.6 cases are in the center and East Coast of the country.

My guess is that BA.4.6 will be less dangerous than BA.5, and that we’ll see fewer hospitalizations and deaths. This is just my speculation at this point.

Important Hurricane Kay warning for San Diego: Last weekend and this week, our increased heat and humidity was caused by Tropical Storm Javier, which traveled up the coast just west of Baja California before heading out to sea. Following closely after is Kay, currently a Hurricane off of Southern Baja. Kay will likely get much closer to San Diego than Javier did. San Diego is likely to see rain and even winds up to 23 miles and hour on Friday, according to the Weather Channel on Thursday morning. Kay will likely be downgraded to Tropical Storm by the time it gets to the waters West of San Diego, but it will still likely bring rain and stronger than normal winds. Consider securing loose items like patio furniture, tarps, and garden gnomes. No one likes a flying garden gnome.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration site on Hurricane Kay, accessed at 7:30, Thursday Morning, September 8.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s