Category Archives: Vaccines

Case Update, June 22, 2021; the Delta Variant, Spike Protein Toxicity

June 22, 2021All Articles, Case Update, Communication, Most Popular, Re-opening, Treatments, VaccinesErik P. Johnson

This is a COVID update. I also have a short note on the Delta Variant and sobering new information on vaccines.

New case numbers continue to trickle down in the US, California, and San Diego County. New cases in San Diego County have been less than 100 a day for most of last week. Unfortunately, new cases aren’t really plummeting, just trickling down, but we are still making progress.

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, June 18, 2021

Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. See also regularly updated slides from SD County. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.

I did some traveling this week, and in several places, including airports, about half of the people there did not have masks on. I was OK with this, since I know most people are now vaccinated, but this is reflective of our ongoing transition back into normality.

The Delta Variant: Way back in October of 2020, a new variant arose in India. First called the India Variant, the naming of variants has changed again in the last few weeks, and it’s now being called the Delta Variant (B.1.617.2). As with other variants, it’s much more infectious than the original Wuhan strain, but it doesn’t appear to cause more severe disease. The current vaccines appear to be effective against the Delta variant, so if you’re vaccinated, you are likely protected against this variant.

___________________________________
Updated from June 29th, 2021 post:
As I’ve stated before, the Delta Variant is significantly more infectious than the original Wuhan strain, as well as more infectious than the UK Variant. I said last week that it is not more pathogenic. I have to adjust that assessment. While it hasn’t so far produced more deaths than other versions, it does seem to produce more hospitalizations, so it does appear to be more pathogenic at least by that measure.

I’m going to way out on a limb and suggest that the Delta Variant will not cause large numbers of new cases in the US because of our natural immunity and our large number of vaccinations. That being said, there have been reports of fully vaccinated individuals contracting the Delta Variant. None of their symptoms were severe. I may of course end up being wrong about this and I will keep you posted on new confirmed case numbers.

Some municipalities are considering new lockdown measures. I have not supported “lockdowns” since last Spring, but as an unvaccinated person, I still wear a mask in indoor spaces in public.
____________________________________

Vaccines and Spike protein toxicity: Now for a topic that is even more likely to get me cancelled than last time. I ran into a video with Bret Weinstein, Dr. Robert Malone, and Steve Kirsch. Robert Malone is the scientist that was instrumental in the development of the mRNA vaccines, like the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. He speaks very authoritatively on the vaccine issue.

Dr. Malone is very pro-vaccine in general, and certainly believes that the mRNA vaccine is effective in principle. However, he also has come to believe that while mRNA vaccines in general are safe, the SARS-2 vaccine in particular does have a big liability. This is that the Spike protein made by the SARS-2 vaccine has a toxic effect on multiple cell types. This explains the higher than normal rate of complications related to the SARS-2 vaccines.

Part of the reason SARS-2 is such a difficult virus is that the Spike protein attaches to a cellular receptor called ACE2. The ACE2 receptor is present on many cells types in the body. This is why the SARS-2 virus can infect so many different cell types, including immune cells.

In response to the vaccine, cells make Spike protein so that the immune system can develop a response to the virus. This is true of all vaccines. However, since the Spike protein can attach to so many different cell types, there is a wide range of symptoms a person may experience in response to the vaccine. Of course, most experience no symptoms at all.

So what if you got the vaccine? Should you be concerned? It’s too early to tell how prolonged an impact Spike protein in the vaccine will have on an individual person. My guess is the impact will subside after a few days, when the Spike protein in cells is degraded. However, since the Spike protein interacts will cells and impacts their functioning, some reactions may take longer to resolve. If you had no reaction to the vaccine, you probably won’t ever have one.

If you haven’t had the vaccine, should you still get it? There is no denying that the vaccine has had a positive impact on the re-opening process and has likely saved many lives. On the other hand, it obviously carries risk. If you are in a high risk group or work with the public, you are still very likely to benefit. As you know, I haven’t gotten the vaccine because of the ADE issue and also because I’m reasonably certain I can avoid getting the virus, especially now since cases are so low. I will be less likely to get the vaccine now.

Social media censorship: The full length version of the video linked above has been removed by Y0u†ub∑. Another channel has it available for now.

If you want to watch it, you should do it soon!

I believe that the censorship of ideas present in our current culture has had a profound and negative impact on the progress of the pandemic, and on our culture in general. As I’ve said repeatedly, politics and science are a terrible mix. We’ve seen many examples this year. I deeply hope we can find our way out of this mess as soon as possible.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

Case Update: May 22nd, 2021; New CDC Guidance and are Vaccines Safe?

May 22, 2021All Articles, Case Update, Treatments, VaccinesErik P. Johnson

Since things are starting to wind down in the US, my COVID posts will probably be less frequent, but comprehensive. This is a case update, and I’ll also discuss the new CDC guidance and talk about vaccine safety.

New case numbers continue to fall in the US, California, and San Diego County. Numbers now appear to be as low as they were last March when everything blew up here. In fact, since we have so much more testing now, it’s likely that our actual new case numbers are likely much lower than they were last March.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, May 18th, 2021

San Diego County Media Briefing, May 18th, 2021

After a high of over 2 million tests a day in January, testing has been below 1 million tests per day in the US in the last week.

New CDC Guidance: The CDC has been slow from the beginning to update their guidance, often seeming out of step with events. This is not new! They have been like this since at least 2004 when I started working at Quest. They’ve just recommended that fully vaccinated people can go indoors without masks. This is overdue, but many are concerned that they can’t identify who has had the vaccine and who has not. A big change that has happened in the last few weeks is that anyone over 16 who wants a vaccine can now get it. This means that instead of being concerned about behavior of others, you can simply get vaccinated and be reasonably certain that either you won’t get the virus, or if you do, you will have mild symptoms. Yes, it’s true that a few vaccinated people have gotten infected, but this is rare. So I’m now in favor of making masks indoors voluntary.

In San Diego County, 42% of the population has been fully vaccinated, and 55% have had at least 1 dose.

As you know, I’ve decided not to get the vaccine because of the ADE issue and because I’m reasonably confident that I can stay uninfected. So I’m committing to continue to wear a mask indoors until cases numbers are very low. And no, I’m not ready to define what “very low” means. But if you’re vaccinated, you should probably start considering yourself safe from the virus.

Should you get vaccinated? I still get a lot of questions about whether someone should get vaccinated. Again, I’m not a physician, so I’m not giving medical advice, I’m just giving you some information that you might find helpful.

First, let me say that my own misgivings about the vaccines have nothing to do with the new technology. Aside from persistent rumors, I haven’t yet seen any real evidence that vaccines have the following effects:

birth defects
shedding viral particles (mRNA or Spike protein) into the environment
re-coding of DNA

It is also theoretically very very unlikely that these things would happen. Biologically, mRNA is made in the nucleus, then goes out into the cell and is read by proteins that use it to make other proteins. It is designed to be very fragile, and quickly degrades, so that for a protein to be made constantly, mRNA encoding that protein must also be made constantly. The mRNA in the new vaccines goes into the cell, gets used to make some Spike protein, and then degrades. It does not persist in the body, and Spike protein production stops when it is gone.

Remember that it’s not your job to refute a claim. It’s the job of the person who makes the claim to provide evidence that it’s true. If they can’t provide evidence, you don’t need to do a bunch of homework.

I am not anti-vaccine! My concern with this vaccine is solely regarding the ADE issue, a phenomena peculiar to just a few viruses, including Dengue, HIV, Zika, SARS, MERS, and maybe SARS-2. If you’re concerned about the new technology, but want to get a vaccine, the J&J vaccine is your best bet.

Also, despite my misgivings, I still recommend the following people get vaccinated:

Anyone over 60
Anyone with 1 or more risk factors:
obesity
certain auto-immune diseases
heart, lung or kidney condition
respiratory condition such as asthma or COPD.
Frequently working with the public
Musicians who sing in indoor settings
Medical personnel

People in these categories are very likely to benefit from the vaccine, despite the ADE issue.

If you’ve had the vaccine or had COVID and are concerned about ADE, remember that it will only become a factor if a significantly new strain arises (“SARS-3”). If this happens, then the procedure for you would be to be very careful initially, then get the “SARS-3” vaccine as soon as possible. The new vaccine will protect you from the new virus. In the future, vaccines against Coronaviruses will be produced even more quickly than this time.

Are vaccines safe? Last week, someone posted a few links regarding concerns about vaccine safety. One source I hope to look at soon is the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System run by the CDC. It lists any adverse reactions happening soon after a vaccination. Medical events listed include any event happening soon after a vaccination, and some are not vaccine related. Sorry, but I simply haven’t had time to study this site yet!

I will say this, however. All vaccines carry a risk. In almost all cases however, the risk is far, far lower than the risk presented by the disease they are designed to counter. While there have been many adverse reactions to the SARS-2 vaccine, most are very mild. Even deaths have occurred, but again they are very very rare. This is true with every vaccine!

We are almost out of the woods! Continued blessings on you and your family!

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

Case Update: April 20th, 2021, Vaccination in SD County, Herd Immunity

April 20, 2021All Articles, San Diego, Treatments, VaccinesErik P. Johnson

This is a case update. I’ll also discuss vaccination in San Diego County and herd immunity in general.

New cases may have plateaued in the US, but new outbreaks are apparent in some states. Michigan was the standout state for new cases, but endcoronavirus now suggests outbreaks across the Rust Belt, Northeast, Northwest, Colorado, and Florida. In most counties, actual numbers are small, but are obviously much larger in urban areas. If we are in a 4th wave, it appears to be much smaller than Wave 3, probably impacted by increased vaccination.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, April 19th, 2021

Endcoronavirus State Level Map, April 19th, 2021

New case loads remain low in California and San Diego, likely at least partially because cases were so high during Wave 3 in the Fall and Winter.

Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. See also regularly updated slides from SD County.

Internationally, new cases are very high worldwide. The new high cases numbers are likely impacted by the new variants such as B.1.1.7 (the UK variant) which is more infectious than the original Wuhan strain, and now dominates in many countries. Brazil and India are particularly hard hit. Canada’s current wave is as high as their Winter wave, but the numbers there are in general much lower than for the US.

Vaccination in San Diego County: According to the County, about 37% of County residents are now fully vaccinated, with 60% having had at least 1 dose. Vaccination is now available to anyone 16 and up who wants to be vaccinated. If you want to be vaccinated, you can find a location on their website.

San Diego County Media Briefing, April 14, 2021

Herd Immunity: First, just a reminder that I am not an epidemiologist. Early in the pandemic, many recommended herd immunity as a way out of the pandemic. At the time, I argued that exposing a lot of people to a disease to protect people from a disease was counter productive. Now that we have a vaccine, herd immunity is a viable option for moving forward. For a population, herd immunity can be effective, although the percentage of people who need to have immunity to reach this is dependent on the disease and usually surprisingly high. On an individual basis, if you’re concerned about catching the virus, it’s far better to just get vaccinated at this point than to worry about if we’ve reached herd immunity.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

Case Update: April 13th, 2021; ADE and What You Should Do if there’s a SARS-3.

April 13, 2021All Articles, Case Update, Treatments, VaccinesErik P. Johnson

This is a case update. I’ll also talk briefly about ADE and it’s impact on the current pandemic and the potential impact on the next SARS virus, if one ever happens.

Cases in the US continue to rise slightly. Outbreaks continue in Michigan, with some new cases also in the Greater New York Metro area and the Texas panhandle. Why is Michigan having such a hard time? Frankly, I’m a little mystified, especially since Michigan has been in strict lock-down through much of the pandemic. It’s now well known that the viral load upon infection has a large impact on the severity of COVID symptoms. Those who get a low viral load upon exposure have lower symptoms. I will speculate and say that perhaps some states with very strict lock-downs caused people to interact in ways that encouraged larger viral loads upon infection, like being with groups of people in private homes. Again, I’m just speculating. This may also explain the large and sustained number of cases in LA county this Fall and Winter.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, April 13th, 2021

California and San Diego County both have come to an equilibrium, with approximately 3000 and 200 new cases a day respectively. Neither appears to have experienced an Easter related bump in cases. The new lower caseload in the US is likely related to vaccination and natural immunity, and is likely to become lower still as we head into Spring and Summer.

Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. See also regularly updated slides from SD County. “Active Confirmed Cases” numbers are reported by San Diego County. Because our new active case numbers are getting low, I’ve switched to a logarithmic view. This emphasizes small values and makes them easier to see. Notice that the case number on the left now go up 10 fold with each higher line on the graph.

Internationally, the caseload continues to increase, almost to Winter peak numbers.

ADE and the next SARS virus: I wanted to explain a little more about my continued concerns about ADE. As the pandemic progresses and we have numerous variants circulating around the world and the US, ADE does not appear to have had an impact on the current situation. This is certainly good news. If it did have an impact, we would be seeing additional deaths from the new variants, which we do not.

My continued concern comes because ADE impacts our ability to fight the NEXT virus. SARS viruses (SARS, MERS, SARS-2) have the ability to easily infect the immune systems of those previously infected with closely related but different strain of the virus. If a future strain of SARS comes out, let’s call it SARS-3 for now, ADE may become a big deal. I stress that this is only theoretical at this point. SARS was moderately infectious, but also very pathogenic, giving all known patients severe symptoms and killing 10%. It was actually less dangerous globally, since outbreaks tended to be detected early and quickly snuffed out. SARS-2 is highly infectious, but much less pathogenic. It’s greater global impact came from it’s very high infectiousness and very long incubation time, being passed even from pre-symptomatic patients. The tendency of all viruses is to become more infectious and less pathogenic over time, a pattern followed by SARS and SARS-2. If we have a SARS-3 someday, it will likely be even more infectious than SARS-2, but less pathogenic. On the other hand, MERS is more pathogenic than SARS, so this pattern doesn’t always follow. The next time another SARS coronavirus breaks out, we will need to be very careful initially until we understand the parameters of the new virus.

So what do you do if you had COVID or had a COVID vaccine if a SARS-3 comes out? If that happens, vaccine production will likely be much faster than this time. Be very careful with the virus initially, and get the new vaccine as soon as it is available to you, because you may be at greater risk for severe symptoms. I know some of this is confusing and counter-intuitive! Feel free to ask questions below!

Don’t fear, but be smart!
Erik

Case Update, April 6, 2021; More on Vaccines, Auto-Immune Disease.

April 6, 2021All Articles, Case Update, Risk Factors, Treatments, VaccinesErik P. Johnson

This is a case update. I’ll also add something to last week’s discussion of the South Africa variant and vaccines, and also talk briefly about autoimmune disease.

Last week, cases in the US looked like they were rising, but this week, it’s more ambiguous. New cases in the US are the same or maybe even a little lower than last week, so I can’t point to a clear trend right now. A spike in new cases persists in the Eastern Michigan at the moment, as well as higher new cases in several other Eastern states.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, April 5th, 2021

New confirmed cases are also slightly up from last week in California and San Diego County. If we have a bump in cases because of Easter, it will start to show up on Wednesday or Thursday.

Update, Vaccines and the SA Variant: Last week I discussed the effectiveness of several vaccines on the South Africa variant (B.1.351). I said that the Astra-Zeneca vaccine works poorly against the vaccine and that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine were still poorly understood. New data from a small study Pfizer released in early April suggests that their vaccine is effective against the SA variant, though the study is too small to say how much. The Moderna vaccine is not particularly effective against the SA variant, but they are testing a booster against the SA variant right now. The Johnson and Johnson vaccine is 75% effective in the US, and 57% effective in South African patients (as reported by J&J).

Auto-Immune Disease and COVID: It appears that those with auto-immune diseases, like me (celiac disease), may suffer more severe symptoms from COVID. There is some suggestion that this may be because of consistent use of NSAID medications to counteract inflammation. Most doctors will suggest remaining on anti-inflammatories unless COVID symptoms appear. Check with your doctor before changing any medications. I am continuing to take my NSAID medications. By the way, Ibuprofen (Advil) is an NSAID, so if you’re taking an NSAID regularly, take Tylenol instead of Advil for routine pain so as to not double up on NSAIDs.

Unfortunately, there aren’t really studies yet to determine if auto-immune sufferers are at greater risk from getting the vaccine. In my non-expert but informed opinion, the risk of SARS-2 infection for auto-immune sufferers is likely higher than the risk of a reaction from the vaccine. Since the COVID vaccines only present the Spike protein to the immune system, they’re likely no more risky than any other vaccination. If you tolerate other vaccinations well, you’ll likely tolerate this one too. My recommendation would be for auto-immune sufferers to get the vaccine. Of course, check with your doctor first. If you choose to get the vaccine, I strongly suggest getting it at a medical facility that can monitor you rather than in a mass vaccination center.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

PS. FB doesn’t like it when I discuss vaccines! They often add a note about vaccines when I discuss it, referencing info from the WHO. While comments FB has added recently are accurate, I generally don’t regard the WHO as a good source of information about COVID, since they are overly influenced by certain political entities and have occasionally been very wrong. The CDC is better, but it often very slow to present new information.

Case Update, March 29th, 2021; Dr. Shane Crotty on Vaccines and Variants

March 29, 2021All Articles, Case Update, Most Popular, Treatments, Vaccines, VideoErik P. Johnson

This is a COVID new case update. I’ll also discuss new cases world wide, and discuss a new video from immunologist Shane Crotty with lots of important information on vaccines and variants.

In the US, we’re starting to see an increase in new case numbers in several states, Michigan and New York in particular. This may be because of the relaxing of requirements by many municipalities, but may also be because of some of the new variants arriving in the US. More on the new variants below.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, March 29th, 2021

Endcoronavirus US States, March 29th, 2021

New case numbers have stabilized in California and San Diego County with around 2000 new cases a day in California and 300 in San Diego. We have yet to see a clear uptick in cases in those 2 regions, but we may see this soon.

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. “Active Confirmed Cases” numbers have been calculated based on the assumption that patients confirmed to have SARS-2 virus at least 17 days ago have recovered. Recently, however, this would produce an active case number that is too low to make sense in comparison to San Diego. This graph estimates 17 to days to recover in January, but gradually moves to 22 days for mid-March. I’ve lost confidence that I can make an Active Case plot that is accurate, so this will probably be the last time I post this for California. Let me know if you think it’s still useful.

Internationally, the US and UK are doing better than average at the moment, but many countries scattered all over the world, with concentrations in Eastern Europe and South America, are seeing new surges in cases. The US and UK are both vaccinating heavily right now, with vaccine rollouts moving slowly in continental Europe, so vaccination may play heavily in this pattern. Also several new variants of the SARS-2 virus are more infectious than the original strain and likely factor in these new surges.

Endcoronavirus Countries, March 29th, 2021

Important new video with Dr. Shane Crotty: MedCram has posted a new video interview with Dr. Shane Crotty, an immunologist in San Diego. His work looks into immune system responses to vaccination as well as native infection. He has several very interesting points to make about SARS-2 immunity and vaccines. First, he says that those infected with SARS-2 do have significant lasting immunity for many months, although it does go down a bit over time. Different people can respond very differently, however, and reinfection is possible in some.

Regarding vaccines, he said that those who have been infected have a good but not great immune response, but it is significantly boosted by a single vaccine dose, gaining an immune response higher than those vaccinated alone. So there is a good reason to be vaccinated if you have already been infected. Of course, if you’ve been infected, you may choose to wait until at-risk people have been vaccinated before you get a vaccine booster.

As for variants, he says there are 2 broad categories of variants, those similar to the UK variant (now commonly called B.1.1.7), and those similar to the South Africa variant (B.1.351). Both new strains are more infectious than the original Wuhan strain. The big difference between them is that those who have had SAR-2 are immunized against the UK strain, but not the South Africa strain. Also, the Astra-Zeneca vaccine does not protect well against the South African strain, and the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines appear to be less effective as well. The good news is, the Johnson and Johnson and Novavax vaccines do appear to protect against the South Africa strain. This suggests that although the South Africa strain is different, it isn’t so radically different that we have nothing to fight it with.

_____________________________
Update, April 6th
A new small study from Pfizer suggests that their vaccine does work on the South Africa variant. The patient number in this trial is small, so they still don’t know exactly how effective it is.
_____________________________

Soberingly, the South Africa strain has reached the US, so if we see a surge in the next few weeks, this strain may be at least partially responsible.

Impact on ADE? If you’ve read my posts on ADE, then you know that the danger from ADE may come when a different strain arises. With the South Africa strain arriving in the US, we may be able to see if ADE will have an impact with SARS-2 in the next few weeks and months. So far, new death numbers have come down with Wave 3, and there is no apparent impact from ADE on case severity. I will certainly be watching to see if this changes.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

Case Update, March 3rd, 2021; When will the Pandemic be Over, New Variants and Vaccines

March 3, 2021All Articles, Case Update, Treatments, VaccinesErik P. Johnson

This is a case update. I’ll also talk about when the pandemic may be considered “over”, and briefly discuss the new SARS-2 variants.

For the US, the downward trend in new cases has paused. New cases have been steady for the past 2 weeks. The daily new cases continue to be higher than the first wave, and almost as high as for the second wave this summer. The new case map from endcoronavirus shows recovery, but this particular map only shows changing trends. The small number of counties in red may be misleading, because many of these counties are rural, so represent very few actual cases. If you look at the top 10 counties for new cases in the country, there is still a significant number of new cases in several counties.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, March 3rd, 2021

We continue to see a downward trend in California and San Diego County. However, the new case numbers remain higher than they were during the 1^st wave.

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. “Active Confirmed Cases” numbers are calculated based on the assumption that patients confirmed to have SARS-2 virus at least 17 days ago have recovered.

When will this be over? The 3^rd wave this Fall and Winter is winding to a close, which makes many speculate on when the pandemic will be over. I’m going to speculate on this, and what criteria we may use to determine this, but remember that I am not a physician or epidemiologist. This is my informed but not expert opinion. I am a molecular biologist specializing in infectious disease testing.

The most significant event happening right now that will impact the progress of the pandemic is the ongoing vaccination program going on in the US. We are currently into Phase 1B, vaccination of all individuals over 65. If you are over 65, I encourage you to consider vaccination. Check in with your local health department to find out how you can be vaccinated. You know I have some concerns about the ADE issue, but on balance, those over 65 will almost certainly benefit from the vaccination despite these concerns. As more vulnerable people are vaccinated, we will continue to see a drop in new cases, as well as a further drop in severe symptoms and mortality. Soon, we will enter Phase 1C, in which anyone over 16 with COVID risk factors will be able to receive the vaccine.

Once everyone who is vulnerable has been vaccinated, this may rightfully be considered the “end” of the pandemic in the minds of many. We should also pay attention to the number of COVID deaths. In order for the pandemic to be considered truly over, the number of deaths must be very low as well. I’m not willing to speculate yet on exactly what “very low” means. Keep in mind also that many other countries do not yet have the vaccine, so vaccination in the US alone will not end a global pandemic! Even after the epidemic in the US is over, travel to and from other countries may still be restricted.

Variants: We have seen several SARS-2 variants arise over the last few months. Most of these variants have made the virus more infectious but not more pathogenic. This is because they alter the Spike protein, the viral protein that is used to infect our cells. This is also the protein that the immune system, and the vaccines, target to neutralize the virus. However, the vaccines currently in use appear to still work on most variants. The exception to this is the South African variant (501.V2) which some suggest may evade the current vaccines. Concerns about this are strong enough that Moderna is currently working on a vaccine against 501.V2. This variant is already present in many countries, including the US.

The Second Shot: I haven’t been vaccinated yet, but I’ve heard several accounts of people feeling significant flu like symptoms after their second COVID vaccination. It’s actually not unusual to have flu like symptoms after a vaccination. Flu like symptoms are your body’s normal response to an invasion and many of the symptoms we experience are designed to help you fight an infection. That’s why so many infectious diseases produce “flu-like symptoms”. So unless your symptoms are severe, or your fever is over 102°, you don’t need to get medical attention. If you are prone to allergic reactions after a vaccine, inform your healthcare provider before you get one.

So we have lots of good news, but we need to continue to be diligent!

Don’t fear, but be smart!
Erik

Case Update, January 27th, 2021, Anaphylactic Shock in 0.0011% of Vaccine Recipients

January 28, 2021All Articles, Case Update, Testing, VaccinesErik P. Johnson

This is a case update. I’ll also briefly discuss some cases of anaphylactic shock in some vaccine recipients. The US, California, and San Diego County are all experiencing a continuing decrease in new confirmed cases! The center of the country seems to mostly have recovered from the 3rd wave according to endcoronavirus, and the coasts are improving as well.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, January 25th, 2021

Anaphylactic shock in some patients: According to Paul Offit, in a YouTube interview (at 2:30 in the linked video), a number of vaccine recipients have experienced anaphylactic shock after being vaccinated. All vaccines carry some risk of this phenomena, but the COVID vaccines appear to produce this at about 11x the rate of the flu vaccines. This is about 11 patients per 1 million vaccinations, about 0.0011%. Dr. Offit thinks this allergic reaction is likely caused by Poly Ethylene Glycol (PEG), a component of many vaccines, also used in many other products, including Dr. Pepper!

The good news is that anaphylaxis is easily treatable using an epi-pen. If you are prone to allergic reactions, let your provider know before getting the vaccine.

Don’t fear, but be smart!
Erik

Case Update: December 21st, 2020; Allergic Reactions to Vaccines in a Small Number of Patients

December 21, 2020All Articles, Case Update, Risk Factors, Treatments, VaccinesErik P. Johnson

This is a case update and I’ll also discuss recent news about vaccines and allergic reactions.Cases continue to rise dramatically in parts of the United States, particularly, the Southwest, the East Coast, and South. The Northern states, where the third wave began, are continuing to improve, some counties are getting new cases under control.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, December 21st, 2020

California is doing particularly badly, with the highest new case loads occurring in 5 California counties in the top 10 counties for the country. LA County alone has 170,000 active cases (new cases in the last 2 weeks), more than 3 times that of the next county, San Bernardino County.

San Diego County is in 7th place for new cases in the country with 33,000 new cases. Cases continue to increase despite new restrictions on outdoor dining.

I never go indoors without a mask on, but still frequently eat at restaurants outdoors and do a lot of hiking. I almost never wear a mask outdoors. I get tested nearly every week, and am always negative. Here in SD County, I’m noticing a lot of people wearing masks outside, and often get the stink eye from them when I’m not wearing a mask outside. Especially if there’s a breeze, I believe it is unnecessary to wear a mask on a hike! Data shows very few outbreaks occurring outside, at least in non-crowded environments. One Japanese article claimed a 19 fold smaller likelihood of becoming infected outside, and other articles saw no transmissions outdoors, according to an article in Science Magazine.

Allergic Reactions to Vaccines: As of this writing, 6 people have been reported to have suffered from severe allergic reactions after receiving a vaccine against the SARS-2 virus. This is out of 272,000 vaccinations given so far, or about 0.002% of vaccinations. The CDC has issued a guidance that those with known allergies to vaccines or injectable medications should not get vaccinated. Those with allergies to food, pets, venom, or latex are still safe to receive the SARS-2 vaccine. For those with latex allergies, know that most medical facilities have changed to non-latex gloves because of allergies to latex.

Mild allergic reactions such as site redness or pain are more common, but will resolve on there own within a day or 2.

I am currently encouraging the elderly or those with significant risk factors to get vaccinated when you can, and to inform your health care provider of your risk status so you can “get in line” for your vaccine.

Don’t fear, but be smart!
Erik

Case Update: December 12, 2020; Important news on Vaccines and ADE!

December 12, 2020All Articles, Case Update, Most Popular, Treatments, VaccinesErik P. Johnson

Here’s an overdue case update. Cases continue to rise for the US, California, and San Diego County. The timing of the current US peak makes it clear that the bump is directly related to the Thanksgiving holiday, starting less than a week after Thanksgiving, and after cases had started to come down. LA County currently has more that 100,000 active cases, more than twice the number than the next highest county, Cook County, the home of Chicago.

New case peaks have left the Northern states and are now centered in the Southwest and Northeast.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, December 12th, 2020

San Diego County now has 24,000 active cases, far higher that the 4,000 we had at the low point between peaks 2 and 3.

More on ADE and Vaccines: Some potential very good news for me on the vaccine front. For months I’ve been warning about ADE, the phenomena that some viruses can be even more dangerous in a second infection than the first. Karen Parrott, a former colleague at Quest Diagnostics, often provides me with interesting COVID related stuff. This week she sent me a podcast featuring Paul Offit, the developer of the first Rotavirus vaccine and an author of many books on immunology and vaccine production. I am not an immunologist but he is. More importantly, he’s the first authoritative person that I’ve heard in the media speak at length on the ADE issue and how it relates to COVID. He claims in the attached clip (time stamped at 14:40) that the current vaccines do not appear to trigger the ADE pathway in animal models, and human trial subject never displayed the signs that ADE was involved in secondary exposures. This difference from SARS-1 and MERS may be related to the fact the SARS-2 is much less virulent than these other 2 viruses.

This makes me more optimistic that the vaccine will be safe from an ADE perspective. I won’t be able to get the vaccine for some time, but I am more willing to get it now than ever before. Several physicians I know are eager to get it as soon as it is available. This is great news!

In the interest of full disclosure, I will point out the some patients receiving the vaccine the UK have experienced some injection site irritation, especially in those with allergies. This is actually somewhat normal for vaccines, and appears to pass within a few days.

In addition, now that mRNA vaccines have been produced for the first time, future development of this new kind of vaccine should be even faster than this time!

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik