Category Archives: Video

JP Morgan Study on Lockdowns, The Moral Matrix and Pandemic, and the Viral Upsurge in the Southern Hemisphere

Today I’m going to discuss the JP Morgan study on transmission (among other things), how the Moral Matrix effects how people see the fight against the virus, and the boom stage in many Southern Hemisphere countries.

JP Morgan has produced a study suggesting among other things that lockdowns are ineffective in fighting Coronavirus (see also a summary from Daily Mail).  The reasoning for this is primarily that transmission is most common in households if a member becomes infected. 

Frankly, when I think about anti-coronavirus efforts, I have tended to lump lockdowns and social distancing together, especially since many use these terms interchangeably.  Notably, the study separates these 2 concepts and suggests that will social distancing (staying a distance away from people in public) may be valuable, lockdowns (staying in your home) is not. 

You might say there have been 2 primary models for dealing with the pandemic in the last month after we’ve flattened the curve, but have not brought the numbers down, at least not in the US.  I’ll call those models the Lockdown and the Re-opening models.  Some want to continue the lockdowns to keep everyone safe from the virus, others want to re-open right away without restrictions.  For several weeks, I have been gravitating toward a third Adaptive model.  Of course, there can be many flavors of this model.  Personally, I think masks, even bad ones, are far better than nothing, especially when worn by everyone, and can help us get back out of our houses and help us re-start the economy with reasonable safety.  So I’m very open to the idea that the lockdowns have not been beneficial.  Some of you will disagree.

The JP Morgan study is at odds with the endcoronavirus.org study, which recommends brief, very strict lockdowns.  It could actually be that these 2 studies actually agree, depending on the time frame you’re talking about.  I do think the lockdown was very helpful in the initial “boom” stage of the epidemic here in the US, but may have lost its usefulness later.

The Moral Matrix: ZDoggMD is a physician and medical YouTuber with a very silly screen name, but who posted VERY interesting video on how different people see the pandemic we are all facing.  Using Jonathan Haidt’s work on the Moral Matrix, he talks about how different people’s moral framework shapes how we are viewing different efforts to address the issue.  I was aware of Haidt’s work, but not had yet applied it to the pandemic in my mind.  As someone who is sometimes exasperated with people who disagree with me (as they are with me I’m sure), this video is helping me remember to see their point of view.  If you’re exasperated with your friends or family, I HIGHLY recommend you watch this video.

Upsurge in the Southern Hemisphere: Lastly, I just want to mention that many countries which have been relatively little effected until now, are now experiencing a big upsurge in cases.  These countries include Russia, Brazil, and Mexico, and many are in the Southern Hemisphere, which is in the late Autumn months right now.  Let’s hope they are able to get things under control quickly.

Don’t fear, but be smart!

Erik

PS. We went hiking in nearby Calaveras Park today for the first time in months, without our masks. There were a lot of people on the trail, and most were well behaved. When I can’t avoid someone on a narrow trail, I use an old SCUBA diving trick for ascending without getting the bends. Just close your mouth and blow slowly out of your nose as you pass someone. You’ll gently move any virus away from your nose! To maintain my friendliness, I greet people early, with plenty of time to start this little maneuver!

Case Update: May 2nd, Video: Simulating an Epidemic

The number of news cases has been erratic in the last week, but at least in the US, it continues to trend downward. I’ve started collecting the number of new cases in the US and California, and while I’m not sure how to integrate that data into my Excel spreadsheet yet, I can tell you that more tests definitely mean more new confirmed cases. So some of the erratic graphs were seen are definitely because of more testing. In the long run, I expect to see new cases come down drastically as we continue to increase testing.

Rt.live is showing that 45 of 50 states have an Rt value below 1 yesterday. This is great news, as it shows that in most states, the virus is slowly disappearing. I’m watching with great interest to see how the states that have started re-opening do. Keep up the great work! We are having an impact!

Also included is a very interesting video I ran across, Simulating an Epidemic, showing a non-scientific computer model of possible epidemic outcomes given different approaches. Keep in mind, this model is NOT attempting to show what will happen in the COVID epidemic, just some theoretical things that might happen given different approaches. He does NOT attempt to prove that any of these things are what’s happening.

The most interesting parts for me were when he compared 2 methods that have been used in different places. At 6:00 minutes, he talks about the Detect and Isolate method, which I favor. This is were you find an infected person and quickly quarantine them until they have recovered. He argues that this is the most effective method in an epidemic like the current one. We haven’t been able to do this, really, because of our lack of testing in the beginning. My fervent hope is that if we get a second wave in the Fall or Winter, we will be ready for this approach.

At 16:50, he talks about a method that I think we are kind of using, the shelter in place, but with trips to central locations. He says that without other measures, these locations become a source of new infections. This is probably not happening as badly in real life because so many are wearing masks to the store!

Don’t fear, but be smart!

Erik

Dr. Erickson’s Video and the Fatality Rate

Originally posted on April 25th, 2020 on Facebook

Friends,
This one is going to be a little mathy. Several people have sent me the video titled “Dr. Erickson COVID-19 Briefing”. I’ve watched the first 12 minutes of the 52 minute video. Dr. Erickson argues that we have a large number of current cases, and that when comparing this number to deaths, he calculates the fatality rate at between 0.03 and 0.07%. This is less than the typical flu. He uses data from his home county of Kern County in California, NYC, the US, Spain, and others. Unfortunately, Dr. Erickson makes a critical error in his calculations.

For the US, he says we have 802,000 confirmed cases (around April 20th) and around 4 million tests. This would give him a positivity rate of 20% for the country. He then calculates that we then have 64 million cases in the country and only 45,000 deaths, giving us a fatality rate of 0.07%

The mistake he makes is that he assumes that tests given represents a random sampling of the population. Anyone who has tried to get a test and failed knows that not everyone who wants a test gets one. And not everyone requests a test either. Dr. Erickson has what’s called a sampling bias. You have to make sure you have a sample that represents the group you want test if you want to say anything about that group. Instead of testing the general population, Dr. Erickson is testing just people who meet the criteria for testing by the CDC or other health care body. This group is far smaller, and far more likely to have the virus than the general population. He over-estimates the number of COVID cases, by maybe 10 fold.

Several studies, some not yet published, have tested random selections of the population using PCR and antibody tests (see references 1, 2, 3, below). In those studies, fatality rates range from 0.12 – 0.7%, 2 – 23x higher than Dr. Erickson’s estimate. Also, the studies by Bendavid and Sood (2, 3) suggested that approx. 4% of the populations of Santa Clara County (San Jose) and Los Angeles were infected in early to mid April. So 96% of the population is still susceptible. At the 0.12 – 0.7 death rate, that’s 6,000 – 37,000 potential deaths for those 2 places alone. Even these studies, with fatality rates far higher than Dr. Erickson’s, have been criticized for an estimate that is too low because of sample bias (4).

We won’t really know how many people have had it until there is wide spread testing. South Korea has done extensive testing, and their fatality rate is 2.24%. This might be in the ballpark of the rate in the US.

So I have to reiterate, SARS-2 is not the average flu. In addition to being up to at least 5x more deadly, it’s also 4x more infectious. The very good news is, our efforts are paying off, and the daily rate of new cases for the US is now just 2.46%, down from a terrifying 46% on March 19th. It’s right for some living in rural areas to wonder if they can begin the process of going back to normal. Some can, but it needs to be done carefully and watchfully, with lots of testing for exposure, not just for symptoms (See my April 9th and April 22nd posts). The entire state of Minnesota plans to do just that. We can watch in real time to see how it goes for them. We don’t want another Albany, Georgia! Urban areas like coastal California and the Acela Corridor will have to wait awhile longer.

Don’t fear, but be smart!
Erik

1. Sutton et al., Universal Screening for SARS-CoV-2 in Women Admitted for Delivery. April 13, 2020. NEJM, nejm.org
2. Bendavid et al., COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California, April 11, 2020, preprint by medRxiv
3. CBS report on upcoming study
4. Experts demolish studies suggesting COVID-19 is no worse than flu

PS. If you want me to watch something later in Dr. Erickson’s video, please tell me what the time reference is. I really don’t want to watch the whole thing!