COVID Vaccine, Herd Immunity, and California Re-Opening

Today I’m going to wade into the piranha filled waters of the vaccine discussion. I’m also going to talk about the issue of herd immunity, and my advice for re-opening.  I’m not prepared for a discussion of the MRM vaccine that has been raging for the last several years, I’m going to discuss vaccines in general, and the hopes for a COVID vaccine in particular. I will say to start out, that I’m a big fan of vaccination in general, but each vaccine is different, and I may not be in favor of a particular vaccine.

Vaccines: I’m not an immunologist and I haven’t made vaccines myself, I’m just sharing with you what I’ve learned from an informed perspective over the last few months.  When I first started sharing about COVID, I said something wrong, that it would take at least a few months to create a vaccine against COVID, which seemed like a long time to many.  This was based on the time it takes to develop a flu vaccine every year.  In the Spring and Summer, scientists find out that strains are likely to cause flu later that year, and they begin making a vaccine. This process takes several months. As it turns out, it’s only this fast for flu because there is a standard way to make a flu vaccine, they just need to know what strains will be likely to arise in the Winter. And sometimes they are wrong. 

Unfortunately, however, there isn’t just one way to make a vaccine.  There are many different ways, and it can be different for every virus or bacteria.  So for every new infectious disease, a vaccine must be developed from scratch, testing all these different methods.  The process can take from 2 to sometimes as long as 30 years!  Some scientists have said that Dr. Fauci’s prediction of a vaccine by next Summer is actually very optimistic! In my informed, but not expert opinion, we should not count on a vaccine for this current COVID-19 crisis.  However, the vaccine work being done will likely help with future outbreaks.  At least part of Dr. Fauci’s optimism is that a lot of red tape is being cut to speed the process, and that’s good, but less development time will also mean more risk for the final product.

Herd immunity: I have heard many people promoting the idea that herd immunity will help us get out of the crisis. Even some governments have been promoting this idea.  Herd immunity is a useful discussion for diseases for which there is a vaccine, but in my opinion, it is not something we should be striving for now with COVID.  We shouldn’t put a bunch of people in danger to keep fewer different people out of danger. Herd immunity requires a lot of people to be immune, and that number is different for every virus.  I’ve heard the numbers 50 – 70% for COVID thrown around.  That’s a majority of the population!  Why would we risk exposing the majority to the virus to save the minority? To be crass, it’s kind of like saying that once the pool is full of bodies, no one else will drown.

Reopening: More states continue to begin the reopening process. I actually strongly support this, as long as people continue to take care as they interact in public!  Even California has entered Phase 1 (CA calls it Stage 2) today, Friday May 8.  The stages CA will use, as well, as the announcement for the May 8th reopening were announced by Twitter by the Governor.  Not my favorite method of making an official announcement, but there it is.  Re-openings have a much higher chance of being successful if we continue to take care! Continue to wear masks in public, and continue to distance when appropriate (see my May 5th post).  I’m hopeful that we can advance quickly through the stages if people continue to take precautions.  Also, it will be important for us to continue to expand testing, and for businesses to take advantage of expanded testing by screening employees as appropriate.  Some municipalities are starting to have drive through testing, including parts of San Diego (you must still have an appointment to be tested).  Check with your health care provider or public health department to see if and how you can be tested.  Keep watching how other states are doing!  We can learn a lot by observing what methods are working, and what methods are not!  I predict that outbreaks will occur in places that become relaxed too soon.

2nd Wave:  Again, I’m not an epidemiologist, and the following is an informed guess, not an expert assessment.  In my informed opinion, we will have second wave in the Fall or Winter, and history suggests it may be more severe than the first wave.  But I’m still optimistic.  Why?  Because I think that with expanded testing, we will be able to test far more broadly this Fall than we could in March and April.  This will help us identify and quarantine infected people rapidly, and will help us control the spread much better than in the first wave. For the 2nd wave to go well, we will need to stay diligent!

Don’t fear, but be smart!

Erik

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