Case Update, December 1st, 2020

Friends,
This is a case update. As I suggested last week, it appears we may be past the peak of wave 3 for now. New confirmed case numbers for the US continue to trend downward, and California and San Diego County numbers appear to perhaps have peaked as well. Tammy Stevenson was right last week to point out that holiday gatherings may produce some new outbreaks. New cases don’t appear for between 5 and 20 days, so we may still see some Thanksgiving related increases, but for now, the numbers look very encouraging.

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. “Active Confirmed Cases” numbers are calculated based on the assumption that patients confirmed to have SARS-2 virus at least 17 days ago have recovered.
Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. See also regularly updated slides from SD County.
Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. See also regularly updated slides from SD County. “Active Confirmed Cases” numbers are calculated based on the assumption that patients confirmed to have SARS-2 virus at least 17 days ago have recovered.

The Northern states, where the 3rd wave started, are recovering, except perhaps for Michigan and Minnesota, and the peak of the wave is moving southward. Los Angeles County now has the most new cases in the country, surpassing Cook County (Chicago). Gallatin, Madison, and Carbon counties in Montana are all past their 3rd wave peak.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, December 1st, 2020
New confirmed cases in Gallatin County, Endcoronavirus County Level Map, December 1st, 2020

Note: Since writing the above, several of my friends in the medical community have told me that they are not as optimistic as I am! While their info doesn’t contradict mine per se, they are expecting a spike in cases due to holiday gatherings. Just posting this in the interest of completeness.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

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