Case Update, June 29th, 2021; Adjustment to comments on the Delta Variant.

Friends, this is a case update. I’m also going to update information on the India/Delta Variant.

New confirmed cases are starting to creep up in the US, California, and San Diego County. Most commentators are suggesting this is because of the India/Delta Variant which is now percolating into the United States.

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. See also regularly updated slides from SD County. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.

San Diego County reports 16 confirmed cases of the India Variant in the County.

San Diego County COVID-19 Variant Case Summary, June 23rd, 2021.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.

According to endcoronavirus, there are pockets of increasing cases in the US, particularly in East Texas. In most of these counties, new case numbers are just slightly higher than “baseline” numbers.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, June 29, 2021

As I’ve stated before, the Delta Variant is significantly more infectious than the original Wuhan strain, as well as more infectious than the UK Variant. I said last week that it is not more pathogenic. I have to adjust that assessment. While it hasn’t so far produced more deaths than other versions, it does seem to produce more hospitalizations, so it does appear to be more pathogenic at least by that measure.

I’m going to way out on a limb and suggest that the Delta Variant will not cause large numbers of new cases in the US because of our natural immunity and our large number of vaccinations. That being said, there have been reports of fully vaccinated individuals contracting the Delta Variant. None of their symptoms were severe. I may of course end up being wrong about this and I will keep you posted on new confirmed case numbers.

Some municipalities are considering new lockdown measures. I have not supported “lockdowns” since last Spring, but as an unvaccinated person, I still wear a mask in indoor spaces in public.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

Note: I am no longer posting graphs of California and San Diego recovered cases, since those municipalities are no longer giving regular updates on those numbers.

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