Case Update, April 20th, 2022; Mask Mandates End on Airplanes

This is a case update.  I’ll also have a comment about the recent end of the mask mandate on airplanes.

The BA.2 variant is now causing a very modest uptick in cases in the US.  93.4% of cases in the US are now caused by BA.2, some caused by a new subvariant called BA.12.1.  Most of the uptick in cases in the US is driven by a rise in cases in Northeast states like New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Vermont.  Cases remain flat in the rest of the country. 

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a linear format.
Endcoronavirus County Level Map, April 20th, 2022
Endcoronavirus State Level Map, April 20th, 2022
Endcoronavirus State Level Map, April 20th, 2022
Endcoronavirus State Level Map, April 20th, 2022
From the CDC page on Variant Proportions. Accessed April 20th, 2022.
Hospitalizations, from the CDC website.

In California, we may be seeing a rise in cases, but reporting has become sporadic, so it’s hard to say for sure. Some days show zero new cases. 

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a linear format.

Cases are dropping in San Diego County, and are lower than they were between the Delta and Omicron waves.

Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. See also regularly updated slides from SD County. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.
Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. See also regularly updated slides from SD County. Graph is presented in a linear format.

World wide, cases are dropping quickly, reflecting the drop in Omicron cases in many countries.

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a linear format.

A friend of mine pointed out to me today that more COVID is being detected in waste water, suggesting another upcoming wave.  The only authoritative looking story I’ve seen on this is out of date, from mid-March, so I don’t know how much of an impact this will have.

Mask mandate ends on planes: On Monday, a federal judge struck down the mask mandate for airplanes and other transportation.  The judge ruled that the mandate exceeded the CDC’s authority under the Public Health Services Act. Within hours, the news was announced to cheers on aircraft across the country. I’m sure flight attendants are happy to have fewer arguments with passengers!

I was actually all for the mask mandate for most of the pandemic because I traveled a lot and it was kind of alarming to be on a full plane during COVID.  I did find it troubling, however, that the mandates allowed nearly useless masks like the blue surgical masks, and did not require the much more effective N95s, KN95s, and KF94s. Why require masks if you aren’t going to require useful masks?

In my last several trips, just in the last few weeks, I went into restaurants, hotel lobbies, stores, gas stations, and everywhere else.  The only places still requiring masks were airports, airplanes, and some laboratories.  This is especially ironic since the air on an airplane is HEPA filtered and is some of the safest air you will encounter in your life.

Omicron is the last gasp of the pandemic, and cases are now very low.  Some estimate that 90% of the American population now has vaccine mediated or natural immunity.  I am now in favor of ending the mask mandate on airplanes.  If you need to travel by air, haven’t had COVID yet, and are concerned about getting COVID on the plane, I strongly encourage you to wear an N95, KN95, or KF94 while you travel.  Don’t bother with a cloth mask or blue surgical mask.

Also, as I’ve stated before, studies now show that vaccine effectiveness drops after 3 months. Also, those with multiple vaccinations, more than a few months old, are now 3x more likely to get an Omicron infection than those who haven’t been vaccinated. For details, see my March 25th post. This is because of Antibody Dependent Enhancement. So if you’re in a high risk category and were vaccinated more than 3 months ago, consider getting a booster. Consult your doctor when making medical decisions.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

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