Originally posted April 3rd, 2020 on Facebook
Friends,
Is our isolation helping? In mid-March, the rate of increase of new confirmed cases was around 40%. Yesterday it was around 15%. I made this graph of what the case load in the U.S. MIGHT have been if we were not in our homes.
It may seem like you’re wasting your time, but you are helping! Many people AREN’T sick today because of our efforts. So keep it up!
Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik
Originally posted April 3rd, 2020
Of course, the medical community deserves a lot of thanks for the long hours, and extra exposure during this time!
But I also want to thank grocery store workers, truck drivers, take out restaurant staff, and others who are keeping us fed and well during this time.
Thank you!
Erik
Originally posted April 1st, 2020
Friends,
I have to moderate my enthusiastic post from a few days ago some good news/bad news information. The good news is, for both the US and California, the rate of new cases is still trending down and is now below 20% for both regions. Unfortunately, even with the lower rate, the total number of new cases is still increasing after a short pause. It is definitely increasing at a slower rate, and that’s good, but increasing nonetheless.
Some have asked, how are these number affected by the new testing? It’s hard to say. The US is definitely doing more testing, and bringing more on line all the time, but our testing is still not adequate to capture all the information we need. There are still certainly a lot of cases we don’t know about, especially among asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people. So even if you don’t have symptoms, it’s still important to keep your distance from others.
Others have asked about the new drug treatments that President has been enthusiastic about. Keep in mind that the medical field is highly regulated, and scientists and regulators are very slow to say a piece of equipment, test, or drug works until rigorous testing has been completed. So is the President right in saying these new drugs show promise, or is Dr. Fauci right in saying we don’t know yet. Well, they both are. The President is being hopeful, citing trials by physicians in other countries and in the US, and Dr. Fauci is expressing caution that the drugs have not been rigorously tested. Both things are true. The FDA recently approved the use of these drugs in trials here, and physicians in the US are always allowed by their credentials to use drugs off label. So testing is being done, and hopefully, we’ll have something that can be used widely soon.
Stay safe, my friends!
Erik
Originally posted March 30th, 2020
Friends!
Lots of good news today! The trend of lower rate of new infections has continued for the US. In fact, yesterday March 29th, we had fewer new cases than the day before. I’m hopeful that this trend will continue and we are finally on the way out of this.
Good news for my home state of California as well! We’ve actually had fewer new cases each day for the last 3 days!
What this all says is that the social distancing we’ve all been doing is working, and we are finally starting to get control of the virus. Your sacrifice is paying off!
What I’m hoping and praying for next is that this trend will continue, and that we will be able to start testing for exposure, not just testing those who already appear to have COVID-19 symptoms. Then we’ll really start to have a better idea how the virus is spreading.
So keep up the great work!
Don’t fear, but be smart!
Erik
Originally posted on March 29th, 2020
This is a somewhat lengthy video which is very popular. This is an NYC doctor making a video for his family. He says a lot of the same things you’ve been hearing, but with a few twists.
First, while you can get infection from the air, as suggested by scientific journals, but only by sustained contact with a sick person. He thinks it’s fine to go shopping or go for a walk, if you follow the following rules:
He also says anyone older than 14 can get sick! Yes, older people are most affected, but plenty of people in their 20s and 30s are getting sick.
He also says that while asymptomatic people are spreading disease, those that do will probably themselves be sick 1-2 days later.
All of this is one guys experience, but I think it’s valuable.
Stay safe! Our efforts to protect each other are working!
Erik
Originally posted March 28th, 2020
Good morning, Friends,
It’s good and bad news this morning. The good news is, our recent trend of a reduction in the rate of new cases in the US is holding! We’ve gone from being consistently in the 40% range, to consistently in the 20% range. This is good, but the bad news is, because our numbers are getting high, a lower daily percentage of new cases still means an increase in daily cases. Plus, in California, where many of you live, the rate has not trended down.
Unfortunately, the US now has more confirmed cases than any other country, surpassing China on Thursday.
So we doing better, but we need to to better still. The numbers are impacted by several things of course, one being our much improved testing rate. This certainly drives the numbers up, but I’m cautiously optimistic that the lock-down many you are experiencing will lead to big improvements soon. So keep it up! Your efforts are not in vain!
A few days ago, I mentioned that those with auto-immune disorders (like me) may be at higher risk. I still have not found an authoritative source for this. Since then, several news organizations have posted reports of people doing worse if they had taken non-steroidal anti-inflammatories (NSAIDs), including ibuprofen. Since auto-immune sufferers often take these medications, this may be part of the reason for their higher risk. This information is evolving, and will likely continue to change for awhile. Myself, I have quit taking one of my anti-inflammatory medications. Check with your doctor before you stop taking a prescription!
Don’t fear, but be smart!
Erik
PS If you’re wondering why testing in the US was so slow to get rolling, check out yesterday’s post.
Originally posted March 26th, 2020
This is the best description I’ve seen so far on why the US is so behind on testing. As a person heavily involved in diagnostics, this is pretty on point.
This presenter is kind of a comedian, so some of what he says is not strictly accurate, but I’m guessing you can guess which things those are.
Despite the photo of the president in the thumbnail, there isn’t really any political material in the video that I recall.
Originally posted March 25th, 2020 on Facebook
As I feared, the case load in the United States has gone by 10 fold approximately every week. When I first gave my talk on March 3, it was 124. On March 13 for Mars Hill, it was 1,762. As I write this on March 25th, it’s 55,041. By Friday the 27th, if the current rate holds, it will be approximately 150,000.
There is some good news, however! In much of the US last week, containment measures have been taken and many are in their homes right now for this reason, working from home, or just taking some time off. It has been a big sacrifice for everyone, and the sacrifice isn’t over. While new cases are still rising, the rate of new cases is starting to go down! For the US as a whole, the rate of increase was between 35-40 between the 17th and 22nd. For the last several days however, the rate has been 31%. Yesterday, the rate fell to 19%! This is still too high of course, but our sacrifice is beginning to pay off. So keep it up!
The curve for the total number of cases is just beginning to bend. It’s just a beginning, but it’s progress. The more we bend this curve, the more lives we save!
Don’t fear, but be smart!
Erik
As I feared, the case load in the United States has gone by 10 fold approximately every week. When I first gave my talk on March 3, it was 124. On March 13 for Mars Hill, it was 1,762. As I write this on March 25th, it’s 55,041. By Friday the 27th, if the current rate holds, it will be approximately 150,000.
There is some good news, however! In much of the US last week, containment measures have been taken and many are in their homes right now for this reason, working from home, or just taking some time off. It has been a big sacrifice for everyone, and the sacrifice isn’t over. While new cases are still rising, the rate of new cases is starting to go down! For the US as a whole, the rate of increase was between 35-40 between the 17th and 22nd. For the last several days however, the rate has been 31%. Yesterday, the rate fell to 19%! This is still too high of course, but our sacrifice is beginning to pay off. So keep it up!
The curve for the total number of cases is just beginning to bend. It’s just a beginning, but it’s progress. The more we bend this curve, the more lives we save!
Don’t fear, but be smart!
Erik
Originally posted March 22nd, 2020 on Facebook
I know I’m not exactly Mr. Fun these days, but I have another little update. According to March 16th paper in Science, one of the worlds 2 leading scientific journals, asymptomatic people who are infected with the SARS-2 virus are about half as contagious as sick people. However, because there are so many of them, asymptomatic people account for 80% of new infections! (Li et al, Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2), March 16, 2020, Science Magazine).
The take away is, yes, even if you are not sick, you can spread the virus! So please stay home, and protect your neighbors!
Originally posted March 21, 2020 on Facebook
Friends,
Just a little up date from last week’s talk. I mentioned in the talk that I saw a 10 fold increase in cases since I gave my first talk to a small audience on March 3rd. The US had 125 cases on the 3rd, and 1762 cases on the evening of March 12th. This morning, March 21st, the US has 19,931 cases, another 10 fold increase since my talk last week! Some of this is because of increased testing, but there are certainly many, many cases we don’t know about yet.
The caseload has been going up consistently by about 34% more each DAY in the US, 6000 new cases just yesterday March 20th. We NEED to get the rate of new increases to come down. Increased social distancing measures will help, but because of the long incubation time, it may take a few days or weeks to see a benefit.
Autoimmune disease: There have been recent reports, that those with autoimmune diseases (like me) are at special risk because our immune systems are already overactive, and will do extra damage to our bodies while trying to combat the SARS-2 virus. In a brief search online, I have not been able to find confirmation of this report. If you have Celiac Disease, MS, some kinds of Diabetes, or other autoimmune disease, take special care.
My state, California, has instituted a voluntary ban on non-essential outing from your house, except for:
Getting food
Care for a relative or friend
Get necessary health care
Go to an essential job
If your job is essential, you know it by now!
Going for a walk is still a good idea if you keep a safe distance (at least 6 feet) from neighbors.
Also, consider texting neighbors, or using Nextdoor or a similar site to try to find people in your area who maybe do not have social connections and may need extra assistance, like food and supply delivery. Ding dong ditch!
I also heard a good idea about buying gift cards from your favorite stores in town to support them until things get back to normal.
That’s all for now! Take care!
Don’t fear, but be smart!
Erik
doubloondiagnostic.com 