Case Update, June 22, 2021; the Delta Variant, Spike Protein Toxicity

June 22, 2021All Articles, Case Update, Communication, Most Popular, Re-opening, Treatments, VaccinesErik P. Johnson

This is a COVID update. I also have a short note on the Delta Variant and sobering new information on vaccines.

New case numbers continue to trickle down in the US, California, and San Diego County. New cases in San Diego County have been less than 100 a day for most of last week. Unfortunately, new cases aren’t really plummeting, just trickling down, but we are still making progress.

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, June 18, 2021

Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. See also regularly updated slides from SD County. Graph is presented in a logarithmic format to emphasize small numbers. Note that each number on the left is 10x higher than the one below it.

I did some traveling this week, and in several places, including airports, about half of the people there did not have masks on. I was OK with this, since I know most people are now vaccinated, but this is reflective of our ongoing transition back into normality.

The Delta Variant: Way back in October of 2020, a new variant arose in India. First called the India Variant, the naming of variants has changed again in the last few weeks, and it’s now being called the Delta Variant (B.1.617.2). As with other variants, it’s much more infectious than the original Wuhan strain, but it doesn’t appear to cause more severe disease. The current vaccines appear to be effective against the Delta variant, so if you’re vaccinated, you are likely protected against this variant.

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Updated from June 29th, 2021 post:
As I’ve stated before, the Delta Variant is significantly more infectious than the original Wuhan strain, as well as more infectious than the UK Variant. I said last week that it is not more pathogenic. I have to adjust that assessment. While it hasn’t so far produced more deaths than other versions, it does seem to produce more hospitalizations, so it does appear to be more pathogenic at least by that measure.

I’m going to way out on a limb and suggest that the Delta Variant will not cause large numbers of new cases in the US because of our natural immunity and our large number of vaccinations. That being said, there have been reports of fully vaccinated individuals contracting the Delta Variant. None of their symptoms were severe. I may of course end up being wrong about this and I will keep you posted on new confirmed case numbers.

Some municipalities are considering new lockdown measures. I have not supported “lockdowns” since last Spring, but as an unvaccinated person, I still wear a mask in indoor spaces in public.
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Vaccines and Spike protein toxicity: Now for a topic that is even more likely to get me cancelled than last time. I ran into a video with Bret Weinstein, Dr. Robert Malone, and Steve Kirsch. Robert Malone is the scientist that was instrumental in the development of the mRNA vaccines, like the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. He speaks very authoritatively on the vaccine issue.

Dr. Malone is very pro-vaccine in general, and certainly believes that the mRNA vaccine is effective in principle. However, he also has come to believe that while mRNA vaccines in general are safe, the SARS-2 vaccine in particular does have a big liability. This is that the Spike protein made by the SARS-2 vaccine has a toxic effect on multiple cell types. This explains the higher than normal rate of complications related to the SARS-2 vaccines.

Part of the reason SARS-2 is such a difficult virus is that the Spike protein attaches to a cellular receptor called ACE2. The ACE2 receptor is present on many cells types in the body. This is why the SARS-2 virus can infect so many different cell types, including immune cells.

In response to the vaccine, cells make Spike protein so that the immune system can develop a response to the virus. This is true of all vaccines. However, since the Spike protein can attach to so many different cell types, there is a wide range of symptoms a person may experience in response to the vaccine. Of course, most experience no symptoms at all.

So what if you got the vaccine? Should you be concerned? It’s too early to tell how prolonged an impact Spike protein in the vaccine will have on an individual person. My guess is the impact will subside after a few days, when the Spike protein in cells is degraded. However, since the Spike protein interacts will cells and impacts their functioning, some reactions may take longer to resolve. If you had no reaction to the vaccine, you probably won’t ever have one.

If you haven’t had the vaccine, should you still get it? There is no denying that the vaccine has had a positive impact on the re-opening process and has likely saved many lives. On the other hand, it obviously carries risk. If you are in a high risk group or work with the public, you are still very likely to benefit. As you know, I haven’t gotten the vaccine because of the ADE issue and also because I’m reasonably certain I can avoid getting the virus, especially now since cases are so low. I will be less likely to get the vaccine now.

Social media censorship: The full length version of the video linked above has been removed by Y0u†ub∑. Another channel has it available for now.

If you want to watch it, you should do it soon!

I believe that the censorship of ideas present in our current culture has had a profound and negative impact on the progress of the pandemic, and on our culture in general. As I’ve said repeatedly, politics and science are a terrible mix. We’ve seen many examples this year. I deeply hope we can find our way out of this mess as soon as possible.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

Lab Leak Hypothesis, Fauci emails, Outdoor protests and COVID

June 9, 2021All Articles, MasksErik P. Johnson

I’m going to discuss the hypothesis that the SARS-2 virus arose from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. While I will attempt to avoid being overtly political, and the topic of the pandemic should not be political at all, we all know that many topics have taken on an unfortunate political tone and discussing them at all can become “problematic”. So I’m going to be problematic. In fact, F@¢3b00k may remove my post, so I’ll link to my blog page in a separate post.

You are free to disagree with my conclusions, but keep it civil. I retain the right to delete comments that don’t advance the discussion in a productive way.

Lab Leak Hypothesis: Since the beginning of the pandemic, rumors were swirling about the lab leak hypothesis. Also from the beginning, the idea was often discussed as if it were obviously a crazy conspiracy theory. I always thought it sounded plausible, and actually came to think it was likely by last summer. I didn’t write about it because I couldn’t prove it. It still can’t really be proven, but there is some evidence pointing toward the idea.

Please note: I do NOT currently see any evidence that the Chinese Communist Party intentionally released the virus as a form of bi0w∑@pon. I currently believe the release was accidental.

Until just a few weeks ago, the idea was basically forbidden to be taken seriously in polite society and would get you banished from F@¢3b00k, YouTube or Google. This changed suddenly when the Wall Street Journal and Vanity Fair published articles on the topic. Mysteriously, this made the dam burst, and now media from all over the political spectrum are taking the story seriously.

What evidence exists for the WIV being the source of SARS-2? Several pieces of circumstantial evidence and a few pieces of scientific evidence suggests a lab origin.

The first patients appeared in Wuhan China, the home of the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). The lab conducts research into bat coronavirus, close cousins of the SARS-2 virus. The wet market often blamed for the outbreak is about 300 yards from the WIV.
Public records surveyed by Matthew Tye suggest that in late November, the lab posted a call for new employees for work on a dangerous new virus. Around the same time, a scientist at the lab, Huang Yan Ling, went missing. Her information was removed from the lab’s website. As of this writing, she had not yet publicly reappeared. Many suspect she is dead.

Tye used to reside in China, is married to a Chinese woman, and posts under the name Laowhy86. He is very critical of the Chinese Communist Party for several reasons, but not of the Chinese people generally.

The WIV had been doing experiments with “Gain of Function” research in which virus are given the ability to infect human cells in order to study them in a system relevant to humans. This practice is very controversial even among scientists, with many believing they are too dangerous to be done. The director of the WIV coronavirus program, Dr. Zhengli-Li Shi, co-wrote articles featuring this research (more on this later).

Funding by the US for gain of function studies were banned in 2014, but at least partially restored in 2017. The NIH may have actually indirectly paid for the research that was done at the WIV. Tony Fauci himself may have indirectly approved this research.

A paper was published by Andersen et al claiming that the virus was natural. However, the paper includes a sequence comparison showing a feature called a “polybasic cleavage site” that exists in SARS-2 but not in closely related coronaviruses. Similar sites exist in the most infectious Flu viruses, including the 1918 virus. Since this site does not appear in closely related coronaviruses, many speculate that this site is evidence of laboratory manipulation. More on this paper later.

From Andersen et al. The polybasic sequence is shown in green.

Dr. Chris Martenson gives a breakdown of this evidence in a YouTube video:

It is nearly obvious to many, including me, that an investigation into the origins of the virus is warranted, including data, documents, logs, and protocols from the WIV. The Chinese government has strenuously objected to any investigation. As of this moment, no serious on-site investigation has been performed.

Fauci Emails: A few days ago, Buzzfeed released the results for a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for emails to and from Tony Fauci regarding the pandemic. Since then, journalists and others have been combing through the emails looking for interesting tidbits. And they have found some.

An exchange between Fauci and a group of other scientists and public officials occurred between January 31^st and February 4^th.

On January 31^st, Kristian Andersen wrote to Tony Fauci. His comments include, “The unusual features of the virus make up a really small part of the genome (<0.1%) so one has to look really closely at all the sequences to see that some of the features (potentially) look engineered.” and “Eddie, Bob, Mike, and myself all find the genome inconsistent with expectations from evolutionary theory.”

On February 1^st, a group including Andersen and Fauci had a conference call discussing the issue. The details of the call are not available.

On February 4^th, members of the same groups discussed wording of a paper to be submitted. The paper is the same one I mentioned in number 4 above, and argues that the virus had a natural source. 4 of the 5 authors on the paper were on the February 1^st conference call. The paper was submitted for publication on February 9^th, just over a week after Andersen’s comments to Fauci on January 31^st. Remember, the paper argues that the virus had a natural source, but the January 31^st email suggests that several authors believed it was engineered.

I personally read this paper last year, and it convinced me, at least for a few months, that the virus was natural. It’s amazing and personally offensive to me that the authors duped me and many others.

Dr. Chris Martenson has a video regarding this email chain.

I mentioned in a post a few weeks ago that while science is an extremely useful tool for learning about the natural world, it cannot answer the main questions of life. Philosophical tools are needed for that. In fact, science depends on philosophical ideas to work. Science depends on scientists being honest and transparent when they write! To publish material that is knowingly false is scientific fraud, and can be extremely damaging. In the scientific arena, authors who commit fraud are often publicly shamed, can be restricted from publication, and lose funding.

In a separate February 5^th email to a friend, Dr. Fauci said “Masks are really for infected people to prevent them from spreading infection to people who are not infected rather than protecting uninfected people from acquiring infection. The typical mask you buy in the drug store is not really effective in keeping out virus, which is small enough to pass through material. It might, however, provide some slight benefit in keep out gross droplets if someone coughs or sneezes on you.”

Of course, Fauci’s statements on masks have been inconsistent. At times he’s said:

We don’t need masks
We should have them but can’t because the medical community needs them
We should be required to wear them
We should wear 2 masks

As you know, my position is that good masks (N95s, KN95s, KF94s, and some homemade masks) are very useful in indoor settings, but are not necessary outdoors, except in crowds. I’ve also said that surgical masks, neck gators, and bandanas are nearly useless against an aerosolized virus. Fauci’s February 5^th email is difficult to interpret, but I think it’s consistent with my position. When he says that masks don’t work, he’s talking about the very common masks that people wear, blue surgical masks and other loose fitting masks. Needless to say, the February 5^th email will surely add to the confusion regarding Dr. Fauci’s position on masks.

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Update, June 16:
In an interview on MSNBC posted on June 9th, 2021, Fauci was discussing the recent criticism of him. In the interview, he stated that “…attacks on me quite frankly are attacks on science.”
and “You’re really attacking not only Dr. Anthony Fauci, you are attacking science.”

It is inappropriate for a leader to equate him or herself with a country, business, church, or practice like science*. When they do this, they are trying to protect themselves by borrowing the loyalty and good will people have for those things and applying it to themselves. The loyalty and good will people have for science is not owed to Tony Fauci or any individual scientist. A scientist only gets to claim “science” when they are practicing science. What is at issue is whether Fauci has actually been practicing science in regards to the issue of the connection between SARS-2 and the WIV. He doesn’t get to just claim this. He needs to provide evidence to support his view. As stated in my post on science, a scientist must provide evidence for their view, not just call you anti-science.

*Napoleon, in a speech to the French Senate in 1814, said “I am the State.”
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Collins on Gain of Function research. Hugh Hewitt recently interviewed Francis Collins, the current director of the NIH. I have been a big fan of Collins. However, in the interview, Collins seems to argue that collaborating on gain of function projects with researchers in China is a good idea. Frankly, with the increased belligerence of the Chinese government for many of its neighbors in recent years, I find Collins comments disturbing.

Podcast episode “We are Indebted to those Who Volunteered for the Vaccine Trials”. Search “Hewitt Collins” in podcast software.

Outdoor protests and COVID: Since I’m already in deep trouble today, I might as well pile on. A paper published in November of 2020 compared the number of Black Lives Matter protests to increases in COVID cases in the cities involved. The paper argues that there was a statistically significant but still small number of COVID cases arising from the Black Lives Matter protests. This gives more evidence that outdoor spread of COVID is minimal, even in large groups. Of course this also suggests that anti-lockdown protests were also unlikely to generate large numbers of new cases.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

Case Update: June 8th, 2021

June 8, 2021All Articles, Case Update, San DiegoErik P. Johnson

This is a COVID case update. New case numbers for the US, California, and San Diego County continue to steadily drop. In particular, San Diego County has seen fewer than 100 cases in a single day reported 15 times in the last 2 weeks. Also, California has had several days with less than 1,000 cases, and the US has had several days with less than 10,000 cases.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, June 8, 2021

San Diego County Media Briefing, June 8th, 2021

Things feel like they’re getting back to normal all over. As I’ve mentioned before, I still haven’t been vaccinated, and am often the only weirdo wearing a mask in an indoor environment. It doesn’t bother me. I know at least 60% of the people I encounter have been vaccinated, and I’m also used to being a weirdo.

Internationally, case numbers are down, but not everywhere. Cases in India are coming down, but cases in Brazil are persistent. There are still countries in Southeast Asia that have very high new case numbers.

New Cases from India, from Johns Hopkins University COVID site.

New Cases from Brazil, from Johns Hopkins University COVID site.

I will probably have another post later today or tomorrow regarding the Lab Leak hypothesis and all the stuff swirling around that issue right now.

Don’t fear, but be smart!
Erik

Case Update: May 22nd, 2021; New CDC Guidance and are Vaccines Safe?

May 22, 2021All Articles, Case Update, Treatments, VaccinesErik P. Johnson

Since things are starting to wind down in the US, my COVID posts will probably be less frequent, but comprehensive. This is a case update, and I’ll also discuss the new CDC guidance and talk about vaccine safety.

New case numbers continue to fall in the US, California, and San Diego County. Numbers now appear to be as low as they were last March when everything blew up here. In fact, since we have so much more testing now, it’s likely that our actual new case numbers are likely much lower than they were last March.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, May 18th, 2021

San Diego County Media Briefing, May 18th, 2021

After a high of over 2 million tests a day in January, testing has been below 1 million tests per day in the US in the last week.

New CDC Guidance: The CDC has been slow from the beginning to update their guidance, often seeming out of step with events. This is not new! They have been like this since at least 2004 when I started working at Quest. They’ve just recommended that fully vaccinated people can go indoors without masks. This is overdue, but many are concerned that they can’t identify who has had the vaccine and who has not. A big change that has happened in the last few weeks is that anyone over 16 who wants a vaccine can now get it. This means that instead of being concerned about behavior of others, you can simply get vaccinated and be reasonably certain that either you won’t get the virus, or if you do, you will have mild symptoms. Yes, it’s true that a few vaccinated people have gotten infected, but this is rare. So I’m now in favor of making masks indoors voluntary.

In San Diego County, 42% of the population has been fully vaccinated, and 55% have had at least 1 dose.

As you know, I’ve decided not to get the vaccine because of the ADE issue and because I’m reasonably confident that I can stay uninfected. So I’m committing to continue to wear a mask indoors until cases numbers are very low. And no, I’m not ready to define what “very low” means. But if you’re vaccinated, you should probably start considering yourself safe from the virus.

Should you get vaccinated? I still get a lot of questions about whether someone should get vaccinated. Again, I’m not a physician, so I’m not giving medical advice, I’m just giving you some information that you might find helpful.

First, let me say that my own misgivings about the vaccines have nothing to do with the new technology. Aside from persistent rumors, I haven’t yet seen any real evidence that vaccines have the following effects:

birth defects
shedding viral particles (mRNA or Spike protein) into the environment
re-coding of DNA

It is also theoretically very very unlikely that these things would happen. Biologically, mRNA is made in the nucleus, then goes out into the cell and is read by proteins that use it to make other proteins. It is designed to be very fragile, and quickly degrades, so that for a protein to be made constantly, mRNA encoding that protein must also be made constantly. The mRNA in the new vaccines goes into the cell, gets used to make some Spike protein, and then degrades. It does not persist in the body, and Spike protein production stops when it is gone.

Remember that it’s not your job to refute a claim. It’s the job of the person who makes the claim to provide evidence that it’s true. If they can’t provide evidence, you don’t need to do a bunch of homework.

I am not anti-vaccine! My concern with this vaccine is solely regarding the ADE issue, a phenomena peculiar to just a few viruses, including Dengue, HIV, Zika, SARS, MERS, and maybe SARS-2. If you’re concerned about the new technology, but want to get a vaccine, the J&J vaccine is your best bet.

Also, despite my misgivings, I still recommend the following people get vaccinated:

Anyone over 60
Anyone with 1 or more risk factors:
obesity
certain auto-immune diseases
heart, lung or kidney condition
respiratory condition such as asthma or COPD.
Frequently working with the public
Musicians who sing in indoor settings
Medical personnel

People in these categories are very likely to benefit from the vaccine, despite the ADE issue.

If you’ve had the vaccine or had COVID and are concerned about ADE, remember that it will only become a factor if a significantly new strain arises (“SARS-3”). If this happens, then the procedure for you would be to be very careful initially, then get the “SARS-3” vaccine as soon as possible. The new vaccine will protect you from the new virus. In the future, vaccines against Coronaviruses will be produced even more quickly than this time.

Are vaccines safe? Last week, someone posted a few links regarding concerns about vaccine safety. One source I hope to look at soon is the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System run by the CDC. It lists any adverse reactions happening soon after a vaccination. Medical events listed include any event happening soon after a vaccination, and some are not vaccine related. Sorry, but I simply haven’t had time to study this site yet!

I will say this, however. All vaccines carry a risk. In almost all cases however, the risk is far, far lower than the risk presented by the disease they are designed to counter. While there have been many adverse reactions to the SARS-2 vaccine, most are very mild. Even deaths have occurred, but again they are very very rare. This is true with every vaccine!

We are almost out of the woods! Continued blessings on you and your family!

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

Case Update: May 7th, 2021

May 7, 2021All Articles, Case Update, San Diego, TreatmentsErik P. Johnson

This is a late COVID update! I’ll also offer a correction on my April 20th post regarding vaccination numbers in San Diego County.

New case numbers continue to trend downward in the US, California and San Diego County. A few hot-spots persist in the Northwest, Colorado, and parts of the Rust Belt, but the situation in Michigan is improving.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, May 7th, 2021

I was overly optimistic in my April 20th report of vaccination in San Diego County, because I didn’t read the fine print! On their press briefing slide deck, they report the percentage of people with either 1 or both doses of vaccine. As it turns out, however, this is not of the total County population, but only of their target of 75% of residents over 16! Yesterday, they reported that 83.9% of the target population has received 1 dose, and 59.2% has been fully vaccinated. This actually corresponds to roughly 50% and 35% respectively of the estimated 3.3 million SD County residents.

San Diego County Media Briefing, May 6, 2021

All SD County residents over 16 can now get the vaccine if they so choose. My guess is that in the next few weeks, more restrictions will continue to drop. California has stated a goal to fully reopen on June 15th.

Don’t fear, but be smart!
Erik

Case Update: April 27th, 2021; Indoor Transmission, New CDC Guidance

April 28, 2021All Articles, Case Update, Masks, Risk FactorsErik P. Johnson

This is a case update. I’ll also talk about a new paper discussing indoor transmission as well as new CDC guidance.

This US is recovering from the 4th wave. Yes, the wave was much smaller than others, and if you don’t want to call it a wave, I won’t argue with you. Michigan bore the brunt of new cases, but cases are going down. Only Washington, Oregon, and Colorado are still experiencing higher case loads.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, April 26th, 2021

Endcoronavirus State Level Map, April 27th, 2021

California and San Diego County continue to have fewer confirmed new cases. In fact, California had just 661 new cases on Sunday. The state hasn’t had fewer than 1000 new cases since almost exactly a year ago on April 28th. Yes, Sunday always has the fewest cases of the week, but it does indicate that cases are trending lower.

Internationally, a large peak is starting to improve. India has been particularly hard hit by the current wave of cases. The higher cases are likely impacted by the more infectious new variants as well as slower vaccination rates.

Endcoronavirus Country Page, April 27th, 2021

Indoor transmission: Several news outlets have been talking about a new paper on indoor transmission of SARS-2 published by a lab at MIT. It makes several interesting points. First, the paper points out that the Six Foot Rule was designed to mediate infection from large droplets like we see for the flu. Large droplets usually only travel from a person to the ground in 6 feet or less. SARS-2 on the other hand, appears to be transmitted as small droplets in an aerosol. The micro-drops stay in the air much longer and can travel much further. Transmission in indoor settings are a function of the number of people in a space, and the time of exposure. Ventilation helps reduce transmission.

MZ Bazant and JWM Bush, PNAS2021 Vol. 118 No. 17

The authors also point out that the likelihood of transmission outdoors is very low. One paper they reference has data from 7,324 transmission events, only 1 happening outdoors. They also say that masks have much more effectiveness in preventing transmission than lockdowns or social distancing, adding more evidence that the virus spreads as an aerosol.

Are you surprised by the papers conclusions? If you’ve been reading my posts, then probably not. I’ve been writing similar things since May 27th of last year. So why are people talking about this now? I certainly have my opinions, and I’ll bet some of you can guess. Meanwhile, several news outlets are saying that the CDC is about to release new guidance that vaccinated individuals can now go outdoors without masks. At the risk of running counter the CDC, I’ll just mention that I’ve been going outdoors without a mask since March of last year, at my most concerned. I almost always wear a mask indoors, but almost never wear a mask outdoors.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

Case Update: April 20th, 2021, Vaccination in SD County, Herd Immunity

April 20, 2021All Articles, San Diego, Treatments, VaccinesErik P. Johnson

This is a case update. I’ll also discuss vaccination in San Diego County and herd immunity in general.

New cases may have plateaued in the US, but new outbreaks are apparent in some states. Michigan was the standout state for new cases, but endcoronavirus now suggests outbreaks across the Rust Belt, Northeast, Northwest, Colorado, and Florida. In most counties, actual numbers are small, but are obviously much larger in urban areas. If we are in a 4th wave, it appears to be much smaller than Wave 3, probably impacted by increased vaccination.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, April 19th, 2021

Endcoronavirus State Level Map, April 19th, 2021

New case loads remain low in California and San Diego, likely at least partially because cases were so high during Wave 3 in the Fall and Winter.

Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. See also regularly updated slides from SD County.

Internationally, new cases are very high worldwide. The new high cases numbers are likely impacted by the new variants such as B.1.1.7 (the UK variant) which is more infectious than the original Wuhan strain, and now dominates in many countries. Brazil and India are particularly hard hit. Canada’s current wave is as high as their Winter wave, but the numbers there are in general much lower than for the US.

Vaccination in San Diego County: According to the County, about 37% of County residents are now fully vaccinated, with 60% having had at least 1 dose. Vaccination is now available to anyone 16 and up who wants to be vaccinated. If you want to be vaccinated, you can find a location on their website.

San Diego County Media Briefing, April 14, 2021

Herd Immunity: First, just a reminder that I am not an epidemiologist. Early in the pandemic, many recommended herd immunity as a way out of the pandemic. At the time, I argued that exposing a lot of people to a disease to protect people from a disease was counter productive. Now that we have a vaccine, herd immunity is a viable option for moving forward. For a population, herd immunity can be effective, although the percentage of people who need to have immunity to reach this is dependent on the disease and usually surprisingly high. On an individual basis, if you’re concerned about catching the virus, it’s far better to just get vaccinated at this point than to worry about if we’ve reached herd immunity.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

Case Update: April 13th, 2021; ADE and What You Should Do if there’s a SARS-3.

April 13, 2021All Articles, Case Update, Treatments, VaccinesErik P. Johnson

This is a case update. I’ll also talk briefly about ADE and it’s impact on the current pandemic and the potential impact on the next SARS virus, if one ever happens.

Cases in the US continue to rise slightly. Outbreaks continue in Michigan, with some new cases also in the Greater New York Metro area and the Texas panhandle. Why is Michigan having such a hard time? Frankly, I’m a little mystified, especially since Michigan has been in strict lock-down through much of the pandemic. It’s now well known that the viral load upon infection has a large impact on the severity of COVID symptoms. Those who get a low viral load upon exposure have lower symptoms. I will speculate and say that perhaps some states with very strict lock-downs caused people to interact in ways that encouraged larger viral loads upon infection, like being with groups of people in private homes. Again, I’m just speculating. This may also explain the large and sustained number of cases in LA county this Fall and Winter.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, April 13th, 2021

California and San Diego County both have come to an equilibrium, with approximately 3000 and 200 new cases a day respectively. Neither appears to have experienced an Easter related bump in cases. The new lower caseload in the US is likely related to vaccination and natural immunity, and is likely to become lower still as we head into Spring and Summer.

Graph is by me, from data collected from San Diego County Public Health. See also regularly updated slides from SD County. “Active Confirmed Cases” numbers are reported by San Diego County. Because our new active case numbers are getting low, I’ve switched to a logarithmic view. This emphasizes small values and makes them easier to see. Notice that the case number on the left now go up 10 fold with each higher line on the graph.

Internationally, the caseload continues to increase, almost to Winter peak numbers.

ADE and the next SARS virus: I wanted to explain a little more about my continued concerns about ADE. As the pandemic progresses and we have numerous variants circulating around the world and the US, ADE does not appear to have had an impact on the current situation. This is certainly good news. If it did have an impact, we would be seeing additional deaths from the new variants, which we do not.

My continued concern comes because ADE impacts our ability to fight the NEXT virus. SARS viruses (SARS, MERS, SARS-2) have the ability to easily infect the immune systems of those previously infected with closely related but different strain of the virus. If a future strain of SARS comes out, let’s call it SARS-3 for now, ADE may become a big deal. I stress that this is only theoretical at this point. SARS was moderately infectious, but also very pathogenic, giving all known patients severe symptoms and killing 10%. It was actually less dangerous globally, since outbreaks tended to be detected early and quickly snuffed out. SARS-2 is highly infectious, but much less pathogenic. It’s greater global impact came from it’s very high infectiousness and very long incubation time, being passed even from pre-symptomatic patients. The tendency of all viruses is to become more infectious and less pathogenic over time, a pattern followed by SARS and SARS-2. If we have a SARS-3 someday, it will likely be even more infectious than SARS-2, but less pathogenic. On the other hand, MERS is more pathogenic than SARS, so this pattern doesn’t always follow. The next time another SARS coronavirus breaks out, we will need to be very careful initially until we understand the parameters of the new virus.

So what do you do if you had COVID or had a COVID vaccine if a SARS-3 comes out? If that happens, vaccine production will likely be much faster than this time. Be very careful with the virus initially, and get the new vaccine as soon as it is available to you, because you may be at greater risk for severe symptoms. I know some of this is confusing and counter-intuitive! Feel free to ask questions below!

Don’t fear, but be smart!
Erik

Case Update, April 6, 2021; More on Vaccines, Auto-Immune Disease.

April 6, 2021All Articles, Case Update, Risk Factors, Treatments, VaccinesErik P. Johnson

This is a case update. I’ll also add something to last week’s discussion of the South Africa variant and vaccines, and also talk briefly about autoimmune disease.

Last week, cases in the US looked like they were rising, but this week, it’s more ambiguous. New cases in the US are the same or maybe even a little lower than last week, so I can’t point to a clear trend right now. A spike in new cases persists in the Eastern Michigan at the moment, as well as higher new cases in several other Eastern states.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, April 5th, 2021

New confirmed cases are also slightly up from last week in California and San Diego County. If we have a bump in cases because of Easter, it will start to show up on Wednesday or Thursday.

Update, Vaccines and the SA Variant: Last week I discussed the effectiveness of several vaccines on the South Africa variant (B.1.351). I said that the Astra-Zeneca vaccine works poorly against the vaccine and that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine were still poorly understood. New data from a small study Pfizer released in early April suggests that their vaccine is effective against the SA variant, though the study is too small to say how much. The Moderna vaccine is not particularly effective against the SA variant, but they are testing a booster against the SA variant right now. The Johnson and Johnson vaccine is 75% effective in the US, and 57% effective in South African patients (as reported by J&J).

Auto-Immune Disease and COVID: It appears that those with auto-immune diseases, like me (celiac disease), may suffer more severe symptoms from COVID. There is some suggestion that this may be because of consistent use of NSAID medications to counteract inflammation. Most doctors will suggest remaining on anti-inflammatories unless COVID symptoms appear. Check with your doctor before changing any medications. I am continuing to take my NSAID medications. By the way, Ibuprofen (Advil) is an NSAID, so if you’re taking an NSAID regularly, take Tylenol instead of Advil for routine pain so as to not double up on NSAIDs.

Unfortunately, there aren’t really studies yet to determine if auto-immune sufferers are at greater risk from getting the vaccine. In my non-expert but informed opinion, the risk of SARS-2 infection for auto-immune sufferers is likely higher than the risk of a reaction from the vaccine. Since the COVID vaccines only present the Spike protein to the immune system, they’re likely no more risky than any other vaccination. If you tolerate other vaccinations well, you’ll likely tolerate this one too. My recommendation would be for auto-immune sufferers to get the vaccine. Of course, check with your doctor first. If you choose to get the vaccine, I strongly suggest getting it at a medical facility that can monitor you rather than in a mass vaccination center.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik

PS. FB doesn’t like it when I discuss vaccines! They often add a note about vaccines when I discuss it, referencing info from the WHO. While comments FB has added recently are accurate, I generally don’t regard the WHO as a good source of information about COVID, since they are overly influenced by certain political entities and have occasionally been very wrong. The CDC is better, but it often very slow to present new information.

Case Update, March 29th, 2021; Dr. Shane Crotty on Vaccines and Variants

March 29, 2021All Articles, Case Update, Most Popular, Treatments, Vaccines, VideoErik P. Johnson

This is a COVID new case update. I’ll also discuss new cases world wide, and discuss a new video from immunologist Shane Crotty with lots of important information on vaccines and variants.

In the US, we’re starting to see an increase in new case numbers in several states, Michigan and New York in particular. This may be because of the relaxing of requirements by many municipalities, but may also be because of some of the new variants arriving in the US. More on the new variants below.

Endcoronavirus County Level Map, March 29th, 2021

Endcoronavirus US States, March 29th, 2021

New case numbers have stabilized in California and San Diego County with around 2000 new cases a day in California and 300 in San Diego. We have yet to see a clear uptick in cases in those 2 regions, but we may see this soon.

Graph is by me, from data collected from Johns Hopkins University COVID site. “Active Confirmed Cases” numbers have been calculated based on the assumption that patients confirmed to have SARS-2 virus at least 17 days ago have recovered. Recently, however, this would produce an active case number that is too low to make sense in comparison to San Diego. This graph estimates 17 to days to recover in January, but gradually moves to 22 days for mid-March. I’ve lost confidence that I can make an Active Case plot that is accurate, so this will probably be the last time I post this for California. Let me know if you think it’s still useful.

Internationally, the US and UK are doing better than average at the moment, but many countries scattered all over the world, with concentrations in Eastern Europe and South America, are seeing new surges in cases. The US and UK are both vaccinating heavily right now, with vaccine rollouts moving slowly in continental Europe, so vaccination may play heavily in this pattern. Also several new variants of the SARS-2 virus are more infectious than the original strain and likely factor in these new surges.

Endcoronavirus Countries, March 29th, 2021

Important new video with Dr. Shane Crotty: MedCram has posted a new video interview with Dr. Shane Crotty, an immunologist in San Diego. His work looks into immune system responses to vaccination as well as native infection. He has several very interesting points to make about SARS-2 immunity and vaccines. First, he says that those infected with SARS-2 do have significant lasting immunity for many months, although it does go down a bit over time. Different people can respond very differently, however, and reinfection is possible in some.

Regarding vaccines, he said that those who have been infected have a good but not great immune response, but it is significantly boosted by a single vaccine dose, gaining an immune response higher than those vaccinated alone. So there is a good reason to be vaccinated if you have already been infected. Of course, if you’ve been infected, you may choose to wait until at-risk people have been vaccinated before you get a vaccine booster.

As for variants, he says there are 2 broad categories of variants, those similar to the UK variant (now commonly called B.1.1.7), and those similar to the South Africa variant (B.1.351). Both new strains are more infectious than the original Wuhan strain. The big difference between them is that those who have had SAR-2 are immunized against the UK strain, but not the South Africa strain. Also, the Astra-Zeneca vaccine does not protect well against the South African strain, and the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines appear to be less effective as well. The good news is, the Johnson and Johnson and Novavax vaccines do appear to protect against the South Africa strain. This suggests that although the South Africa strain is different, it isn’t so radically different that we have nothing to fight it with.

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Update, April 6th
A new small study from Pfizer suggests that their vaccine does work on the South Africa variant. The patient number in this trial is small, so they still don’t know exactly how effective it is.
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Soberingly, the South Africa strain has reached the US, so if we see a surge in the next few weeks, this strain may be at least partially responsible.

Impact on ADE? If you’ve read my posts on ADE, then you know that the danger from ADE may come when a different strain arises. With the South Africa strain arriving in the US, we may be able to see if ADE will have an impact with SARS-2 in the next few weeks and months. So far, new death numbers have come down with Wave 3, and there is no apparent impact from ADE on case severity. I will certainly be watching to see if this changes.

Don’t fear, but be smart,
Erik